Hello everybody GT's back !!! lol

Hello guys my fellow traders and friends, sorry for the very long disappearance (about 6 month :) i'm actually very very very busy, my schedule very tight with trading, picking up my kids after school etc etc, although i open back my blog for public viewing again but my updates will be sparse, maybe once in a while.. ngeh ngeh ngeh..

Now i would like to congratulate to my new apprentice.. congrats, you guys now know how to unlock the market be it equities and futures using my GrepsTrader (GT) method..

"SIMPLIFY TRADING" thats my new motto now.. kekekeke

ANALyst JOKE for 2011..

*1st JOKE :-- 7th July 2011, click HERE!! to read The Star news.. i help summarise it analyst predict CPO price to drop to 2800 within 2 weeks in July 2011 from price about 3020 level at news print.. AND YESSS exact same day CPO shoot up about +150 pts.. hehe

*2n JOKE :-- 3rd September 2011, click HERE!! to read The Star news.. got mix view here but the most notable from OSK Research expecting CPO to go to 3500-3600 level, no time frame though.. UOB maintain drop to 2900-2700 level.. at news print CPO at 3050 level..

**enough said, judge for yourself the suppose so called expert review.. my advise STOP PREDICTING!!! just follow the market.. haiyaaaa.. be it in Malaysia or the whole world mostly analyst view cannot pakai one... thats why USA also hit last time.. today AAA rating next few month bangkrup.. WTF!!!

Totally unrelated to trading!

Indon, Bangla & Malaysian An Indonesian, a Bangladeshi and a Malaysian Chinese are in a bar one night having a beer. The Indonesian finishes his beer and suddenly throws his glass in the air, pulls out a gun and shoots the glass to pieces. He brags, "In Jakarta our glasses are so cheap that we don't need to drink from the same one twice." The Bangladeshi is obviously impressed. When he finished his beer, he throws his glass into the air, pulls out his gun and shoots the glass to pieces. He says, "In Dhaka we have so much sand to make the glasses that we don't need to drink out of the same glass twice either." The Malaysian, cool as a cucumber, finishes his drink, throws his glass into the air, pulls out his gun and shoots the Indonesian & the Bangladeshi. He says "Tiu Nia Sing! In KL we have so many Indons and Banglas that we don't need to drink with the same ones twice."

Bursa deserves a tongue lashing!

No trades today because of the feed problem from Bursa to the live chart providers! I would suggests all our readers to call Bursa Customer Service at 03-27320067 and give them a tongue lashing!
The standard excuse use by Bursa would be your chart provider problem or streamyx problem;please don't believe their excuses!
Also refrain from using vulgarities on them as they'll put down the phone, I know because I used on them 4 letters , 3 syllables and 5 syllables vulgarities!
PUI! to Bursa.

CPO price falling to dip below RM3,000 per tonne due to rising inventory and decreasing demand

By SHARIDAN M.ALI
sharidan@thestar.com.my

PETALING JAYA: Crude palm oil (CPO) price is likely to fall below RM3,000 per tonne over the next two weeks due to rising inventory and decreasing demand, traders and analysts said.

The last time CPO three-month futures was below the RM3,000 per tonne level was on Oct 21, 2010 at RM2,990. Since then it had been climbing to reach a peak of RM3,955 on Feb 11.

The CPO three-month futures price had been on a declining trend for the past five months to close at RM3,029 per tonne, down RM11 yesterday.

Malaysia's CPO stock and production, which have been climbing since February, are playing their part to further suppress the CPO price. Malaysia is the second largest palm oil producer globally after Indonesia.

The latest numbers according to the Malaysian Palm Oil Board (MPOB) monthly statistical data for May showed month-on-month palm oil stocks rose nearly 15% to their highest in 16 months as production overtook exports.

Palm oil stocks in May rose to 1.92 million tonnes from 1.67 million tonnes a month before a level unseen since January 2010 while CPO production shot up by 13.74% to 1.74 million tonnes.

Interband Group of Companies senior palm oil trader Jim Teh expected the CPO price to scale back to around RM2,800 per tonne within the next two weeks as demand was sliding due to the “expensive” CPO price and higher inventory.

“The current CPO price is considered expensive for physical' buyers to keep high inventory on the commodity. They would just buy the CPO as and when they needed it,” he said, adding that besides demand, paper trading of CPO also helped to ramp up its price.

Teh said the healthy production levels in the past three months were supported by good weather that resulted in robust fresh fruit bunches yields.

Nevertheless, Teh argued that even at RM2,800 per tonne, the margin was still good as the production cost of CPO per tonne hovered around RM1,200 to RM1,500.

“It will be a good correction and a breather for the physical buyers to come in and buy CPO as well as to clear the mounting palm oil stock,” he told StarBiz, adding that CPO prices had been rallying since 2006.

The decrease in CPO prices would also very much depend on the latest level of inventory where MPOB is expected to release its June monthly data early next week.

Meanwhile, IJM Plantations Bhd chief executive officer and managing director Joseph Tek Choon Yee remained optimistic that the average CPO price for calendar year 2011 would be higher than last year's RM2,745 and there was still room for it to average at RM3,000.

“The widening soy bean-palm oil discount, presently at US$237 will make palm oil very attractive for soy bean oil buyers such as India. This will certainly lend support to subsequent purchases,” he said.

On rising stockpile, Tek said CPO backed by fresh fruit bunches production was on the rise as the oil palms were recovering from the double whammy weather effects arising from El Nino and La Nina last year and early part of this year.

“This production figures leading toward rising stockpile and lower crude oil prices appear to set some level of panic' selling and lends support to opportunity buying,” he said.

Another analyst, sharing similar views with Teh, also anticipated that the CPO price would dip below the RM3,000 level.

“The inventory level is just quite high right now. Maybe retailers are waiting to buy just before the festive season starting in August.

“The declining CPO prices were also influenced by lower soy bean prices,” he said.

Muslims around the world will start fasting for the whole of August before celebrating the Aidil Fitri.

Palm oil expert Dorab Mistry, director of Godrej International Ltd, was quoted by Bloomberg yesterday as saying the velocity of CPO production was unbelievable.

In April, Mistry revised his earlier CPO forecast given the anticipation of higher global palm oil production this year.

He expected the RM3,000 per tonne price support to be broken and push CPO prices to trade even lower going forward.

OSK Research, which analysed the CPO futures market in June for a few times over a period of three weeks, said that its technical landscape had deteriorated at every subsequent analysis.

“Our major talking point last month was the bottom point of the “non-classical hammer”, or the RM3,163 per tonne level. This is because the RM3,163 per tonne level has been the support floor for the market's six-month old sideways trend.

“However, this crucial low was violated last week and it looks like this violation of the key RM3,103 per tonne support level has confirmed a breakdown,” it said in a report earlier this week.

But, the research house said since the violation of this level was not aggressive enough, it could not tell for sure at this point of time if the RM3,163 per tonne level had been decisively taken out.

“Hence, to confirm that the lowest point of the “non-classical hammer” has really been violated, we would have to wait until prices fall below last week's low of RM3,031 per tonne level,” it said.

**PS>> I love this kind of news from our super analyst.. hehe, go down within 2weeks under 3k posible, my signal also showing i still holding SHOT 3259 for September contract rollover from August contract initial SHOT 3362.. this is the STAR link : I DO HOPE ALL THIS ANALYST ALREADY SHOT WAY HIGHER THEN ME.. muahahahaha

Malaysian Toilet True Story.. hahahaha

HUMOR TIME

Kenapa tandas berbayar keadaannya lebih MOTHERFUCKING SHIT dari tandas free? Bukankah tandas berbayar seharusnya lebih terjaga? Have you guys tried using the toilet inside Hentian Puduraya before? A few years ago before it was closed for renovation, I had an awesome urge to take a shit there ( I was picking up my sister). Went to the toilet, paid the 20 cents entrance fee and went to look for an empty stall. First one was clogged with solid shit encrusted inside the toilet bowl like dried Milo. The second one does not have a functioning flush. A brown floating turd bobbed on the surface of rancid yellow piss. The third one is just a little bit cleaner than the toilet from Trainspotting

I really need to take a shit but I lost the nafsu to berak then and there. Ran out while at the same time squeezing my sphincter all the way to the Nandos next to Puduraya. Went into the loo and I let it rip. It was still the best shit I ever had. It went out in one awesome explosion that would make the dudes on Jackass happy. You'll never know how awesome an invention a sitting toilet connected to a sewage system is until you are denied one at a very crucial shitting moment.

*MY FRIEND EMAIL TO ME THIS "LOL" STORY :))

Are You A Bull Or A Bear?

Casual acquaintances who come to learn know I trade for a living (something I rarely volunteer without being asked) will always ask whether I’m a bullish or bearish on the market or economy. My reply often irritates them when I say “I’m neither one – I’m just an opportunist.”

What I mean by that is that I go out of my way to avoid placing myself into a neat and tidy category that can influence my analysis of the markets and the stocks I trade. Although I’m far from perfect and sometimes let my opinions cloud my judgment (I am human after all), I do really try to do everything I can to look for opportunities on both sides of the market.

Many investors and also traders try to fit themselves into one neat category based on their opinions or of others who’ve they have come to respect. Even worse, those views are frequently tainted by how their portfolio is currently positioned (people want to be right after all) which can be both dangerous and quite unprofitable.

Believe it or not, some of the most profitable trades I’ve taken have been ones that run contrary to my personal views.

Case in point, I know several traders who are struggling now because they are very bearish about the market. While in principle I agree many of their views, I cannot let those views cloud both my analysis and trading. While I’m fairly certain there will be a time when their views will be proven correct, in this business timing is everything. Opinions after all, don’t pay the bills – only profitable trades do!

As you’ll soon learn if you haven’t already, there is no difference between being “early” and “wrong” in this market. Likewise, it pays to remember there were lots of hedge funds that went broke prior to March of 2000 because they shorted all of the Internet and tech stocks. These guys were proven to be right on the money much later on, but in reality they never were able to take full advantage of it because they lost so much money before the bear returned.

Remember this – in trading it isn’t about who is right or wrong. Instead it is all about who can make money and take advantage of the most opportunities in the present. Opinions are terrific things, but in most cases, you would be wise to set them aside and trade the market you see rather than the market you think you should or want to see.

* This report was originally published by The Kirk Report on April 6, 2004.

The Number One Rule of Trading

By Craig Turner

If there is one thing I've learned in all my years in the financial markets, it is never add to a losing position. That means never "average down" a losing long position or "average up" a losing short position. This is even more important when using leverage. There is a very well-know saying, "your first loss is your best loss". What this means is you are best served taking a small loss before it becomes a larger loss, or even worse, a loss that eats up a majority of your trading capital. In order to avoid this major trading mistake, we must first understand why traders add to losers, why traders should not do this, and what they can do to stop it from happening.

Why Traders Add To Losing Positions

Traders stay in losing positions for only two reasons. Either they don't want to be wrong about the market or they don't want to lose money on the trade. Sometimes it is a combination of both. Regardless of which one it is, it causes traders to stay in positions that are going against them.

As traders are losing money, they figure that if they add to the losing position, they can bring the average cost of the position down. For example, let's say a trader wants to be short Crude Oil and he sells 1 contact of Crude Oil at $75.00. Crude is now trading at $80, and the trader is down $5 in crude ($5000). The trader then decides to sell short an additional 2nd crude oil contact at $80. The average short position is $77.50 (the average of $80 and $75).

The trader now only needs Crude Oil to go $2.50 in his favor to get to breakeven at $77.50, instead of $75.00. However, every tick Crude Oil goes against the trader past $80.00 a barrel is going to count twice a much, eating up available capital a double the rate. To make matters worse, markets that are trending in one direction, tend to continue to trend in that direction.

Why Traders Should Not Add To a Losing Position

When a trader is in a losing position, the market is telling him he is wrong. The market is the total sum of psychological, technical and fundamental knowledge. The market is the total sum of all investor knowledge and market opinions. It includes institutional money, sovereign wealth funds, hedge fund managers, trend following funds, commercial hedging interest, and every other participant, large and small.

If a trader continues to hold onto a losing position after the market says he is wrong, the trader is basically saying he is right, and the collective sum or the rest of the market is wrong. In other words, the global consensus is telling the trader the world is round while the trader insists the world is flat. This will almost always lead to larger losses. Bullish markets tend to trade higher, and bearish markets tend to trade lower. It takes something significantly fundamental or technical to occur in that market to change the trend.

Not only is the trader wrong shorting Crude at $75, he is twice as wrong shorting the market again at $80. The losses are now piling up exponentially if he continues to add on to a losing position. Plus, he has now doubled his leverage on a bad trade. Meanwhile, if the trader had just had a $1 or $2 stop on the crude oil position, he would have taken his loss and been done with the trade. He would have been able to admit he was wrong and move onto the next opportunity, instead of creating larger losses and letting other opportunities go by while he was in a losing trade.

Wait Just A Second, I Have "Averaged Down" and Made Money!

If you have averaged down losing positions before, chances are it may have worked in your favor. The problem is, the one time it does not work in your favor you will blow out your account. Every time you "average down" and succeed you are cheating trading death. It is almost like a game of Russian roulette. It only ends once, and when it does, it's over.

"Markets Can Remain Irrational Longer Than You Can Remain Solvent" - John Maynard Keynes

When it comes to leveraged trading, there have never been truer words said. Traders who want to hold onto losing positions "until they come back" to the price they entered may never see it happen. A trader who has a $10K acct short 1 crude at $75.00, only has $10 of room before the account is drawn down to zero. Most people think they will never let a position go against them that far, but it does happen, and there is no assurance that the market will come back to $75 before it gets to $85, causing the trader to liquidate the position for a very large loss.

THE SOLUTION

The simple solution is to never add to a losing position. However, as an experienced broker, analyst, trading newsletter publisher and individual trader, I know that is easier said then done. Here are a few rules to live by in order to help you stop adding to losing positions.

Place Stops Just Outside Normal Trading Ranges

When entering a position, traders need to give their positions enough room to work in their favor, but they also must have stops if the market moves decidedly against them. For a swing or position trader, this means having stops just outside the most recent trading ranges. It could be the previous day's low/high, the past week, or right outside the natural support and resistance lines for the markets. Traders need to define this risk parameter BEFORE they enter the trade. Traders need to know what the risk is and make sure they are comfortable with the risk if they are wrong about the direction of the market.

Mental Clarity Can Only Be Achieved After the Losing Position Is Exited

When a trader is in a losing position and the market keeps on going against them, it is very difficult to approach the situation with a level head and clear mind. The fear of losing money can be the greatest factor in the psychology of trading. It causes traders to see things irrationally, as they do everything possible not to take a loss. This leads to poor decision-making and bad judgment. This is why it is so important to define the stop loss parameters before you enter the market and stick with it.

Unfortunately, sometimes traders get into a trade without a stop or let the position run too far against them. If possible, try to imagine you are flat instead of in the position. Then ask yourself, if you were flat, would you get back into the position? If not, you need to get out, and get out fast. If the trader can't honestly say what he would do, or can't detach from the situation, the best thing to do is exit. Getting out of a loser relieves stress and allows the trader to approach things with a level head. Once the trader is out of the position, he can always get back in if he feels it is the right move. Some traders don't like this method because they don't want to spend the extra commission for getting out and getting back in. However, the clarity that is gained from exiting a losing position is invaluable compared to the extra transaction costs. Don't worry about a few dollars when thousands are at stake.

You Must Be Able to Admit When You Are Wrong and Take a Loss

Being able to admit you are wrong and take a loss is the first step in the journey of successful trading. No one is perfect in trading. Taking a small loss is a minor victory in trading. Being able to let winning trades run and exiting losers for a small loss is what it is all about. However, you can't get to the winners if you take large losses.

It is OK to be wrong. Actually, it is great to be wrong. Why? Because if you can't be wrong, you'll never be right about the markets. Trading is about taking risk and managing risk. The trader who can exit a position going against him early is giving himself the change to win big on the next opportunity.

The Best Traders Add to Winning Positions & Use Stops to Protect Profits

The most successful traders I've seen not only cut their losers quickly, but they let their winners run and add on as they go in their favor. They never average down losers, but they will certainly average up on winners. While some might not want to trade multiple lots, I think the concept is very important. When you have a winning position, the market is telling you that you are correct. The collective sum of all knowledge in the market place is in total agreement with you. This is the perfect time to add on another lot if you have the available capital without over-leveraging your account.

Some traders don't want to add on at higher prices because it adversely affects their dollar cost average. However, what traders need to realize is that markets trading higher tend to trend higher, and the opposite is true for bear markets. If you find yourself in a great winning trade, and you see no reason why it should stop, that is a great time to add on. When it comes to trading, you want to buy high and sell higher, or sell low and buy lower. We are not in the business of picking bottoms and tops. It is a one-way ticket to trading failure.

Successful traders also use stops. As the market moves in their favor, they move their stop up to where they feel is below a reasonable support level. They are comfortable with the losses or profits they will take if they get stopped out. They let the market tell them if they are right or wrong and they accept the market's decision!

Find a Broker Who Can Help You When You Need It Most

If you are having difficulty with adding to losing positions, you need to talk to your broker about it. Regardless if you are a self-directed online trader or broker-assisted, you need to have a talk with your broker. If you don't have access to a broker with your current trading arrangement, consider finding a firm that will allow you to access to one regardless of whether you are a self-directed online trader or broker-assisted trader.

As a Senior Broker at Daniels Trading, I can honestly tell you from first hand experience how important it is to be able to work through these situations with someone who has an interest in the success of your trading. Sometimes we are able to offer valuable advice about not adding to losing positions. Sometimes it just helps for the trader to talk about the trade the same way a person tells their psychologist their problems. In the end, it is the trader who works out what needs to be done just by communicating the situation aloud to another human being. Either way, having a trained professional in the weeds next to you during battle can make a huge difference in your most difficult trading periods, and help you make sure you never return to that place again.

#Article from FutureSource.com

Wise Words from Ed Seykota

If I am bullish, I neither buy on a reaction, nor wait for strength; I am already in. I turn bullish at the instant my buy stop is hit, and stay bullish until my sell stop is hit. Being bullish and not being long is illogical. ~ "Market Wizards, Interview with Top Traders - Jack D. Schwager"

*that what i can describe about the way I trade, almost almost similar with what Ed Seykota says.. cool :))

Will Gold Reach $5,000 Per Ounce?

Why The Founder Of The Second Largest Gold Mining Company In The World Says That Gold Will Reach $5,000 Per Ounce!
By Richard Rockwell

If the price of gold rising to $5,000 sounds far fetched to you, you may remember it probably sounded just as far fetched for gold to go over $1,000 per ounce back in 2001...



There are 5 fundamental reasons that gold will go that high...and possibly higher!

1) Inflation

If you weren't one of the lucky ones back in 2001 to get the message and see returns of 400% on gold, hang on because this next run could allow you to easily make up for that missed opportunity MANY times over. With the worldwide Central Banks have rolled out an unheard of $12 Trillion Dollars in Stimulus programs and more than DOUBLED the US money supply! Never before in US history has there been such a massive paper print that could put the final nails in the US dollar's coffin. Remember the relationship with the Dollar vs. Gold? When the dollar is weakened what happens to gold? It goes UP, UP, UP!

2) Demand

You aren't the only one receiving this knowledge; the writing is on the wall. Investors and hedge funds alike are gobbling up more gold in more huge quantities than ever before. For those in the US that are still asleep at the switch, watch out investors in India will buy whatever you don't want. Let's not forget China, who is not shy about telling it's citizens to invest in all of the gold and silver they can afford. Can you say a BILLION people? So here's the lesson from Economics 101. When Demand increases and SUPPLY DECREASES, what happens to the PRICE? Elementary my dear Watson!

) Follow The "Smart Money"

Have you heard the phrase "If you want to be rich, copy what the rich invest in" So what are the richest people in the world investing in? Drum roll please...You got it, GOLD! Black Rock Inc. one of the largest investment mangers said that 2009 was the turning point...For the first time in over 20 YEARS the Central Banks have become Net BUYERS as opposed to Net Sellers of Gold.

4) Currency Crisis Coming

History (Fill in the blank)_______ itself. We have already seen what has happened to Portugal, Spain, Italy, Ireland, Iceland, and Greece. We have also seen the UK and countless other economies struggling. This is ALWAYS what happens with a currency that is only backed by the FAITH of the issuer. There has NEVER in the history of the world been a fiat (man made) currency that has survived...NEVER! If you're still out there thinking that the US Dollar can make a "comeback" with all that has happened, then you will be like the farmer that won't go into the root cellar thinking that the tornado heading for his house will certainly go around him! Again let me say NEVER in history has ANY fiat currency survived, and the US dollar will be no exception. If you do not have gold, what you will have will be plain and simple...paper and ink.

5) As Easy As 1,2,3

The move to $5,000 or more per ounce is sure to happen in 3 distinct phases, with each stage rapidly accelerating the previous one. Phase 1 Currency will continue to devaluate to almost nothing. HINT -- The US dollar has already lost 97% of its purchasing power since its inception! Phase 2 will be the strongest levels of investment demand the world has ever seen. By Phase 3, the price of gold will not move gradually, but rather TAKE OFF like each bar of bullion is strapped to a rocket! The price of gold today will seem like chump change in comparison!

50 reasons why you shouldn't be trading or even consider trading if...

1) you need the money
2) you hope to buy something from the paper winning in the trade you just made
3) you want to make a million bucks with 1 lot of a futures contract
4) you set a minimum profit target for the year
5) you don't want to lose
6) you never lost before in anything in your life; more like you bluffed yourself that you never lost
7) you offer people free market tips
8) your wife spends your profits and nags you about your losses
9) you graduated from Harvard or Yale or Princeton or Cornell with an economics or business degree
10) your financial blog is full of analysts reports that justify your positions even when you are losing like crazy
11) you don't allow anyone to post a contrary argument to your positions in your blog even though the market has proven those arguments correct
12) you brag a lot in other peoples blog on how you rob and pick pocket the markets but disappear when you are wrong big time
13) you criticise other traders for learning from books and say that you play by your own rules and still insist on averaging and holding on to your losses even though the market is in a super trend against you
14) you had a group of trading students whom you were teaching and they have now abandoned you
15) your ex-students are now trading successfully in markets you dare not trade and still dare not trade in
16) you thought you had a trading system, when in reality all you had was your hope and opinions
17) you've been called stubborn, egoistic or lansi lanyong too often
18) you think to accept losses is the same as to like losses
19) you think Singapore street food tastes better than Malaysia's
20) you think Ipoh Fried Kway Teow, Penang Laksa and Seremban Beef Noodles originated from Singapore
21) you know the names of all the footballers in the Malaysian football team
22) you have a new child but the last time you had sex with your spouse was over a year ago
23) you don't have a trading system and if you did ,you 2nd guess the signals
24) you don't know who Manny Pacquiao is
25) you think Floyd Mayweather Jr has balls
26) you pester and beg successful traders for their system
27) your charts are so full of indicators and lines that you can't see the price bar at all
28) your charts are so full on indicators and lines and you still don't follow it
29) you say that you'll fight the market because a few lots won't kill you
30) you want to impress a girl/guy/bapok
31) you talk about trading to your non trading friends so often that you suddenly realise that you have no real friends left and the people that hang around you now only want to borrow money from you or get a free lunch
32) you always blame others for your mistakes
33) you are a white skin worshipper
34) you invest in unit trusts
35) you can't think of any other uses for palm oil except as cooking oil and bio-diesel
36) you equate successful trading with passing exams with flying colors
37) you support Liverpool FC even when it's in the relegation zone
38) you think the voice behind Bart Simpson is a guy
39) you find Venus and Serena Williams attractive
40) you hero worship Mao Zedong
41) you are for the return of Chin Peng to Malaysia
42) you still buy 4D,5D,6D and Toto
43) your second home is the casino
44) your second home is the pub
45) you named your sons or dogs Jack ,Jim,Johnnie or Sahib
46) you spend more than what you earn
47) you are about to undergo brain surgery
48) you are about to undergo open heart surgery
49) you listen and followed the advice of Tun Dr. Mahathir not to cut your losses during the stock market crash of 1997
50) you find this article irritating and feel like killing me because I have just described YOU!

A few behavioural traits of a confused/bad speculator

In my many years of trading securities and futures, I've come across many or almost all, bad traders. They could be the ordinary jo in the gallery or the chief dealer in a big firm and the thing that catches my attention is that all of them share a lot of similar traits; not necessarily all the traits but a lot of similarities.
So here are some of the most common traits of bad traders which I noticed:

1) they spend paper profits.
Illogical as it may seem, this is the most prevalent trait among people with poor emotional control. I think most of you will realize the same thing if you think about it. How many traders(or even yourself) do you know suddenly increase their spending pattern during a bull run? They could be more lavish in their meals, change a new car, change to more expensive perfumes, more expensive in their dressing or even keep a mistress. When I ask them whether they have liquidated their positions; the answer is always unanimously 'not yet'! ..There's more, they'd be so full of themselves that they even declare that they'll make it no matter what the market condition and most of these fellas are stock traders in Bursa(Bursa being a 1 way market only)! This only shows that people do not need to be rich before they 'upgrade' themselves,they only need to feel rich!
A contrasting example would be my very succesful trading buddy Tom: he naturally liquidates the portion of his positions to pay for his Camry , an Altis for his wifey and a 3 week European holiday for himself, wife and his in-laws ;all paid for in cash.. my only gripe with him is why take his in-laws along? Sorry tommy..i can't help myself.

2)they are sexually active only when there are winning real or on paper.
Lo and behold, I broke the taboo subject that most of you don't want to admit! Think about it, bad traders are only sexually active when they get lucky in the markets! They think they are great and they go all out to conquer another person to fuel their ego of being so smart in making a rare win. They good traders (very few) whom I know personally are only sexually active when they are in a losing streak! Maybe this behavior can be explained that winning traders get their high from winning and don't need any external stimulation to cut down their high..after all,sex is more mental than physical and so too is trading. Lesson to be learnt here? Good lovers are actually lousy traders..LOL!

3) they have no life outside of the markets.
They would be restless when the market is on holiday,they'd look at charts the whole time or be drinking themselves drunk just so the holiday would past by. They would talk about the market to every person they meet showing off their limited knowledge that they possess. Or they'd go around asking for tips and tits! If they could,they'd want to trade 7 days a week.
Contrast this with the good,excellent or fantastic traders I've come across; They have a balanced life and are very passionate with their hobbies and family. They have other goals in life and look forward to a break to catch up with their other passion. Gt is passionate with his family and with his hobby of flying remote control planes and helicopter. Lesson to be learnt here; GET A LIFE!

4) they subscribe to analyst reports.
All the good traders whom I personally know NEVER bother reading analyst reports let alone subscribe to it...not even the Wall Street Journal or even Fortune magazine. But they do read good trading books like 'Reminiscences...', Market Wizards etc. Why then bad traders rely on so many news and reports while the best don't even bother? Confidence; the best knows that no one knows what the future holds. Some more,why bother paying for someone else's opinion when you can get it free in some bad traders blogs? But ask yourself this, if analysts are so sure of their reports,don't you think they'll sell everything they possess and trade? Think about it, how many analyst do you know gets fired for writing a wrong report or a series of wrong reports? Lesson here: if you want opinions ,get it FREE!

5)they never learn from their mistakes.
History repeats itself all the time and that's why we study it. How many traders do you know actually study their mistakes and try their level best not to repeat it? Or how many traders do you know keep on repeating their mistakes over and over again? Like getting wiped out more than once? It's hard to accept your mistakes more so if you have an over inflated ego. I guess that's why so few make it in this game called speculation ,but a lucrative game for those living off people's mistakes.

This is also not a conclusive traits of bad confused traders, just a few traits that are most common among them. Think about it, does it apply to you? If it does,then do something about it like STOP trying to impersonate a trader.

The many 'don't 'of intelligent speculation

Many a time I've been approach by friends who want to speculate in the futures markets and I always give them my copy of 'Reminiscences of a stock operator' to read 1st. If the book is not read within 1 week, I would then ask them to return back my book and tell them plainly in their face not to waste their time even to think that they can trade.
This is a hard and cruel game and you need a passion for it. But let's see how many people can be passionate about this game after reading and pondering about the 'DON"T' of speculation. Why do I start of with the 'don't' of speculation ? Because it's the most common and basic mistakes made by every beginner when they place their 1st trade.

DON"T #1 : Don't ever over trade.
This year we've come across bloggers and traders who have suspended themselves from trading for one reason or the other. My deduction is that they were over trading. What is over trading? Over trading is mainly trading with insufficient capital. What is sufficient capital? Let's take the example of CPO ,the margin requirement is RM4,ooo per lot. That means you need a minimum of RM4,000 to trade 1 lot of CPO. If you follow gt's 30% rule;you need a minimum of RM 14,000 in your trading account to trade 1 lot of CPO. But how many actually keep to such a rule? I've seen many gallery traders who trade CPO with RM5-7,000 per lot.Needless to say,they don't last long after 1 or 2 whips from the market.

DON"T # 2: Don't increase your trading position after a loss or a series of losses.
This is quite a normal thing for gamblers to do,they increase their positions every time they lose thinking that their losing streak will end soon and they get to cover all their losses in 1 hand. But how many actually know when their losing streak will end? What if the markets whips u 10 times in a row? DO you think you still be around to catch the big move in your favor? This is also a form of over trading.

DON"T # 3: Don't ever fight the trend because of your opinions.
There is a blogger (still blogging by the way) who is and I believe is still fighting FKLI by being short and even shorting higher. He quotes 'who says there is only 1 road to Rome?' . But the surest and fastest way to Holland is by being stubborn and egoistic by fighting the market! IF you think you are smart and intelligent and therefore you must be right all the time why then do you not find or even hear of Albert Einstein or Professor Stephen Hawking trading for a living even on a part time basis, since they are sooooo smart and their opinions are definitely better than yours or mine? Think about it? You think you are smarter than Einstein or Professor Hawking?

DON'T # 4: Don't ever talk about your trades with other traders.
Trading is an egoistic game,chances are if you ever talk to someone that someone will talk you out of your position;since egoistic people always want to justify that they are always right! If they can't talk you out of your position with charts ,they'll probably talk you out of it by showing you negative analyst reports or projected gloom in the economy or market. Remember, all analyst reports and projections are just opinions of the author!

DON'T # 5: Don't ever talk about trading to your non-trading friends or family.
This is the fastest way to lose friends as they'll think that you are either a braggart or a gambler.
You must see it from their point of view,it's damn boring and most inexperienced traders get carried away as they'll go on and on and on about their trades or system and will start dominating the conversation. People will avoid you the same way people avoid direct selling recruiters or pesky life insurance agents trying to load you up with policies you can't afford! But do talk trading to people you don't like ;it's a classy way of getting rid of them from your life!

DON"T # 6: Don't be a fulltime trader/speculator if 30% gain a year on your capital is less than what you are making now.
Serious, it blows my mind wondering why people even decide to trade on a full time basis when they are already holding on to decent jobs. But honestly,30% gain is a conservative figure to speculators,but how sure are you that you'll even come out ahead for the year? Most part time traders don't realize that the reason they are doing spectacularly year in year out is because of their full time job. Losses will affect you no matter what people say and losses without a full time job will affect you even more. You'll never realize just how many tricks your mind can play with you.

This list of 'don't' is not exhaustive but I think I've covered the basics . Now it's all up to you to really be honest with yourself. If I offended anyone,don't take it personally but just ponder about it.

By the way,I'm not taking in new students but the door is still open for oops n nb..since I left them too abruptly! So oops and nb do send me your email address if you want to continue your education.

Test your skill/system trading..

*You discover a super system to trade, try this website www.chartgame.com to test your "PROVEN" system to trade the market. The chart taken from real stocks traded in US/Canada, your system will compete with Buy & Hold system set by the website.

*This is my game record using my system.. hahahhaah, damn bored now playing chart games..

Unit Trust vs Stock Market

Taken from : RHBInvest's forum

Written by : "I smell money"

Don't know if you guys notice this, but everyone with investment in unit trust need to take note of this. I've recently flipped through the newspaper to have a check on performance of unit trust (according to Lipper Ranking) and these are some of the findings:

1.For the 6 months period [26-02-10 - 27-08-10], the common benchmarks FBM KLCI index rose +12.8% and FBM100 rose +12.4%. However Malaysian equity funds (non-islamic) had only return +8% on an 80-member average. {WHOA!!! not too impressive return by an average fund manager}.

2. Ok, then lets look at how many of the funds beat the benchmark of 12%. Oppss .. only 10 out of 80 fund or 12.5% of fund managers beat their benchmark.

3. Ok, then we shall look at the creme de la creme of the group, and see how they have done. For the top performing fund for the 6 month category, the top fund only had a return of 15%, huhhhh!!! only 3% above the benchmark.

Ok. then its time to compare this with some of the markets 2010 favourite.

Comparison same period
1. Supermax 12% (even after it had fallen off the cliff towards the end of July)
2. TimeCom 29%
3. Axiata 19%
4. Jadi 65% (ok this one a bit too unrealistic, but if you went in around XXsen when the stock was heavily traded)
5. AirAsia 14%
6. JCY -29% (of course not everything is hunky dory, and how can anybody forget about this name)
7. Unisem 19%
8. Notion -45% (woooo, dont we hate this name)
9. UEMLand 40%
10. MRCB 21%
11. Adventa -27%
12. Talam -20%
13. BJ Corp -23%
On average +37.5% (if you spread your money across all the 13 stocks evenly).


So if anyone who wants to invest in the stock market through unit trust then they should reconsider this strategy.

*Thanks to Teh (http://cpteh.blogspot.com) for allowing me to borrow/publish his article here.

In the long run ... Commentary: This might be first genuine bear market in three decades

ANNANDALE, Va. (MarketWatch) -- Lots of attention was paid, going into Monday's trading session, to the Standard & Poor's 500 Index.

Would it join the Dow Jones Industrial Average in breaking to new bear-market lows, lower than the Nov. 20 level that up until recently had marked the low point of the bear market that began in October 2007?

As fate would have it, of course, it was not even close. By the close of trading, the S&P 500 was more than nine points below its Nov. 20 closing low.

That's depressing enough news, of course.

But by focusing on whether the Nov. 20 lows would be broken, investors may have overlooked something else that happened Monday that is even more momentous from a longer-term point of view: The Dow broke below its closing low of the 2000-02 bear market; the S&P 500 had achieved that dubious feat last Friday.

Technicians will no doubt endlessly debate the meaning of this in coming days. But one intriguing consequence of the 2002 lows' being broken is that the stock market's decline between 2000 and 2002 begins to appear less and less as a bear market and more as a mere correction within a great bull market that began in the early 1980s.

According to this retelling, that bull market lasted 25 years and did not finally end until October 2007.

What difference does it make how we retell the story of what has passed? In one sense, of course, it makes no difference. After all, regardless of what you call it, the stock market fell some 40% between 2000 and 2002.

But, in another sense, this retelling of history carries great significance, since it reveals a lot about the bear market we're suffering through right now. According to some technical analysts, prominently including Richard Russell, editor of Dow Theory Letters, a major bear market can be expected to obliterate between one-half and two-thirds of the previous advance.

I'll do the math for you: We've already erased around half of the bull market that began in 1982. A two-thirds retrenchment would take the Dow down to around the 5,200 mark.

By the way, this sobering retelling of the stock market's history over the last three decades isn't something that technicians are cooking up only now, after the stock market has already declined by 50%.

Russell outlined just such a possibility nearly a year ago, in April 2008, when the Dow was trading at relatively lofty levels around 12,600. In entertaining the notion that the 2000-02 bear market was actually a mere correction within an ongoing bull market, Russell wrote: "Somewhere ahead we're finally going to enter a true primary bear market, maybe one of the greatest and most tragic in history. That future bear market will end with something we haven't seen since the 1980 to 1982 period, and I'm talking about great values in stocks. And when I say great values I'm talking about blue-chip stocks selling in single-digit price/earning ratios while at the same time providing dividend yields of 6-7-8%, the kind of yields we last saw at the lows of the early 1980s."

The bottom line? On this retelling, we should have expected the bear market that follows an unprecedented bull market would be just as momentous.

In other words, we should not have been surprised.

Mark Hulbert is the founder of Hulbert Financial Digest in Annandale, Va. He has been tracking the advice of more than 160 financial newsletters since 1980.
*Courtesy of MarketWatch

An historical walk down Wall Street, Commentary: Analogy with the 1930s doesn't have to spell doom

ANNANDALE, Va. (MarketWatch) -- It's become fashionable in recent months to look to the 1930s for an analogy to what we're suffering through today.

But how many of the commentators who so blithely throw the comparison around have actually analyzed what it would really mean to play out that decade's script?

I think you know the answer.

So, for this column, I decided to take that analogy seriously. And, not surprisingly, I found that it presents a very depressing portrait of what might lie ahead. If we think we've had it bad so far -- and we have -- we haven't seen anything yet.

Believe it or not, however, I also found some good news.

That, at least, is the conclusion to emerge from a recent interview with Jeremy Siegel, the Wharton finance professor and author of the classic investment book, "Stocks for the Long Run."

To locate the date during the 1930s that is most analogous to today, Siegel looked for the point at which the stock market after 1929 had -- as is the case today -- declined by half. He relied on a stock-market benchmark that he has calculated which takes dividends into account and also adjusts for inflation.

This point of 50% decline came very early in the Great Depression, according to Siegel -- at the end of 1930, in fact. As in the current bear market, that initial point of 50% decline came just 16 months after the August 1929 stock-market top.

But the bear market had only barely begun at that point. Over just the next five months, according to Siegel, on an inflation-adjusted total return basis, the stock market fell an additional 60%.

You read that right: That's a 60% drop on top of a 50% drop -- or should I say "on bottom of ..."?

If the stock market today were to suffer a further decline of similar magnitude, the Dow Jones Industrial Average would be trading below the 3,000 level by the end of July.

To this extent, therefore, we had better hope that the analogy with the 1930s doesn't hold.

The news isn't all bad, however. That's because, according to Siegel, the stock market quickly recovered from its 60% plunge in early 1931 -- within two years, in fact. By June 1933, the market was actually ahead of where it had stood at the end of 1930.

Furthermore, over the five years beginning at the end of 1930, the stock market, on an inflation-adjusted total-return basis, produced a 7% annualized return -- notwithstanding the 60% drop in the first five months of that five-year period.

In other words, even if you had been so unlucky as to buy stocks right before a six-month decline of 60%, you would have been whole again within just two years and would have earned a 7% real return over the next five years.

Few investors would object to that outcome today, of course. A 7% real return over the next five years sounds awfully attractive, in fact. And, yet, assuming the analogy with the 1930s holds up, that is what will happen between now and February 2014.

Of course, there's no way of knowing whether we're really playing out a 1930s script. And even if we are so unlucky as to endure a 60% drop over the next five months, there are no guarantees that the market will recover as quickly as it did following the first half of 1931.

Nevertheless, insofar as we choose to compare the current bear market and the Great Depression, we owe it to ourselves to carefully analyze what that analogy holds. And, as awful as that analogy is, it also contains some welcome and surprising silver linings.

Mark Hulbert is the founder of Hulbert Financial Digest in Annandale, Va. He has been tracking the advice of more than 160 financial newsletters since 1980.
*Courtesy of MarketWatch

Stocks jump after Bernanke says recession may end

Stocks jump after Bernanke tells Congress recession might end this year

NEW YORK (AP) -- Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke has given Wall Street a double dose of reassurance. Bernanke has told Congress the recession might end this year, and that regulators aren't planning to nationalize banks. The news alleviated some of investors' worries about the economy and the banking system, and lifted the Dow Jones industrial average and Standard & Poor's 500 index off their lowest levels since 1997.

AP - Federal Reserve Board Chairman Ben Bernanke testifies on Capitol Hill in Washington, Tuesday, Feb. 24, 2009, before the ...">

AP - Federal Reserve Board Chairman Ben Bernanke testifies on Capitol Hill in Washington, Tuesday, Feb. 24, 2009, before the ...

Analysts said the market was also hoping that President Barack Obama, who speaks to the nation Tuesday night, will offer details about his plans to help stabilize the financial system.

The Dow is up 236 points at 7,350, while the S&P 500 index is up 29 at 773. The Nasdaq composite index is up 54 at 1,441.

Advancing issues are ahead of losers by 5 to 1 on the New York Stock Exchange. Volume came to 1.84 billion shares.

*Courtesy of Yahoo! Finance

>> Now we wait and see whether Bernanke prediction going to happen by year end or not. Hehehehe, now looks like prediction between Greenspan vs Bernanke ???

US Stocks Close Lower On Broad Losses; DJIA Down 251

NEW YORK (MarketWatch) -- U.S. stocks plunged to their lowest levels in nearly 12 years as risk aversion and the weight of a global recession sparked a broad-based decline led by industrial heavyweights such as General Electric and Alcoa.

After a bank-led 485-point slide last week sent the Dow to new bear market lows, a more broad selloff Monday pushed the index even lower Monday. Setting off the declines was a drop of 48 cents, or 7.6%, to 5.81, for Alcoa, and 53 cents, or 5.7%, to 8.85, for General Electric.

For GE, traders continue to view the industrial conglomerate as basically a financial firm, with a Deutsche Bank analyst saying there's a growing risk that GE will have to cut its dividend to support its GE Capital unit. For banks, and all of the companies that rely on the credit markets to sustain growth, a continued fear about what still remains on corporate balance sheets reigns.

"Where there has been smoke so far, there has eventually been fire every time," said David Klaskin, chief investment officer for Oak Ridge Investments in Chicago.

Overall, the Dow closed down 250.89 points, or 3.41%, to 7114.78, marking its lowest closing point since May 7, 1997. In 10 sessions, the Dow has lost more than 14% and is down 19% for the year.

Former Dow-component American International Group also weighed on the broad indexes, with CNBC reporting that AIG is in talks with the U.S. government about securing more funds to be able to continue operating after March 2. Traders say any move to help the giant insurer could delay government officials from more pressing issues within the economy and banking system.

AIG, now a small-cap, closed down a penny, or 1.9%, at 53 cents.

The Standard & Poor's 500 slid 26.72, or 3.47%, to 743.33, marking an 11-year closing low and passing through its closing low of 752.44 made in November. Though the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite declined more than the other broad indices, off 53.51, or 3.71%, to 1387.72, it remains up more than 5% from its November closing lows.

It was notable the financial sector didn't take part in the broad market declines as talk of an expanded U.S. government stake in Citigroup prompted some gains for banks. Citigroup shares rose 19 cents, or 9.7%, to 2.14. Bank of America, which has also been subject to speculation about a possible government takeover, gained 12 cents, or 3.2%, to 3.91.

But traders note a heavy reliance on Washington isn't healthy for banking stocks long-term. And the broad stock declines have fed into the same level of concern from investors in late 2008, when money managers said many of their clients were increasingly asking for the safest route possible.

"People are totally risk averse to anything right now. They're backing off any asset allocation and just getting out as it's going to take a while before any stimulus money moves in," said Thomas Nyheim, a portfolio manager with Christiana Bank & Trust.

Elsewhere among banking stocks, Royal Bank of Scotland gained 29 cents, or 5.2%, to 5.83, after reports that it would follow in Citigroup's footsteps with a breakup in which it would hive off assets it plans to sell.

However, UBS and other Swiss banks dropped on continued worries about their investment-banking operations. UBS closed down 1.32, or 14%, at 8.39.

Shares of managed-care providers dropped sharply Monday after the Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services said Friday private Medicare plans would see a modest 0.5% increase in the 2010 fiscal year under tentative projections, a growth rate that would come in well below some analysts' expectations. Shares of UnitedHealth Group declined 4.16, or 15%, to 23.82 and Humana fell 9.71, or 24%, to 30.83.

Ford Motor gained 15 cents, or 9.5%, to 1.73 as the car maker reached a tentative deal over unionized retiree health benefits Monday, increasing the chances that General Motors and Chrysler can secure their own concessions. GM closed unchanged at 1.77.

On the earnings front, Campbell Soup reported a 15% decline in fiscal second-quarter net income on falling volume and the stronger dollar. The soup maker closed down 82 cents, or 2.8%, at 28.63.

Garmin gained 1.11, or 7.3%, to 16.28 on Nasdaq. The maker of global positioning systems' fiscal fourth-quarter net income dropped 49% on falling sales and margins.

Fitch Ratings further downgraded the credit ratings of Mexican cement maker Cemex SAB, off 36 cents, or 6%, to 5.64, citing concerns about the company's level of debt.

*Courtesy of MarketWatch

Major stock market indexes fall to 1997 levels

Dow, S&P 500 fall to 1997 levels as sagging confidence pulls stocks lower; Dow falls 251

NEW YORK (AP) -- Wall Street has turned the clock back to 1997. Investors unable to extinguish their worries about a recession that has no end in sight dumped stocks again Monday. The Dow Jones industrial average tumbled 251 points to its lowest close since Oct. 28, 1997, while the Standard & Poor's 500 index logged its lowest finish since April 11, 1997.

All the major indexes slid more than 3 percent. The Dow is just over 100 points from 7,000.

"People left and right are throwing in the towel," said Keith Springer, president of Capital Financial Advisory Services.

Investors pounded most financial stocks even as government agencies led by the Treasury Department said they would launch a revamped bank rescue program this week. The plan includes the option of increasing government ownership in financial institutions without having to pour more taxpayer money into them.

Although the government has said it doesn't want to nationalize banks, many investors are clearly still concerned that this could be a possibility as banks continue to suffer severe losses because of the recession. They're also worried that banks' losses will keep escalating as the recession sends more borrowers into default.

"The biggest thing I see here is the incredible pessimism," Springer said. "The government is doing a lousy job of alleviating fears."

The Treasury and other agencies issued a statement after The Wall Street Journal reported that Citigroup is in talks for the government to boost its stake in the bank to as much as 40 percent. Analysts said the market, which initially rose on the statement, wanted more details of the government's plans.

"It's only a very partial picture of what we may get," said Quincy Krosby, chief investment strategist at The Hartford. "This proverbial lack of clarity is damaging market psychology."

Meanwhile, technology stocks fell after The Journal reported that Yahoo Inc.'s new chief executive plans to reorganize the company. But the selling came across the market as pessimism about the recession and its toll on companies deepened.

"There's no where to hide anymore," said Jim Herrick, director of equity trading at Baird & Co.

The market's decline extends massive losses from last week when the major stock indexes tumbled more than 6 percent. The major indexes plunged through the lows they reached in late November, at the height of the credit crisis.

"There's no main driver of the down day," said Ryan Detrick, senior technical strategist at Schaeffer's Investment Research. "There's just so much skepticism in the overall market and (the question is) is the government doing proper things to get us out of this problem. Obviously the stock market is voting no."

According to preliminary calculations, the Dow dropped 250.89, or 3.41 percent, to 7,114.78. It last closed this low on Oct. 28, 1997 when it finished at 6,971.32. The Dow hasn't traded below the 7,000 mark since October 1997.

The Standard & Poor's 500 index fell 26.72, or 3.47 percent, to 743.33. It was the lowest close since April 11, 1997, when it ended at 737.65.

The technology-laden Nasdaq composite index dropped 53.51, or 3.71 percent, to 1,387.72.

The Russell 2000 index of smaller companies fell 16.38 or 3.99 percent, to 394.58.

Declining issues outnumbered advancers by more than 6 to 1 on the New York Stock Exchange, where volume came to 1.61 billion shares compared with heavy volume of 2.12 billion shares on Friday.

Among tech stocks, Hewlett-Packard Co. fell $1.96, or 6.3 percent, to $29.28, and Intel Corp. dove 70 cents, or 5.5 percent, to $12.08.

Other big decliners included General Electric Co., which dropped to a 14-year low of $8.80, but ended down 53 cents, or 5.7 percent, at $8.85. Aluminum producer Alcoa Inc. tumbled 48 cents, or 7.6 percent, to $5.81.

Some financial stocks managed to gain, including Citigroup, which rose 19 cents, or 9.7 percent, to $2.14, and Bank of America Corp., which gained 12 cents, or 3.2 percent, to $3.91.

Bond prices were mixed. The yield on the benchmark 10-year Treasury note, which moves opposite its price, fell to 2.77 percent from 2.79 percent late Friday. The yield on the three-month T-bill, considered one of the safest investments, rose to 0.28 percent from 0.26 percent Friday.

The dollar was mixed against other major currencies, while gold prices fell.

Light, sweet crude fell $1.59 to settle at $38.44 per barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange.

Overseas, Britain's FTSE 100 fell 0.99 percent, Germany's DAX index fell 1.95 percent, and France's CAC-40 slipped 0.82 percent. Earlier, Japan's Nikkei stock average fell 0.54 percent.

*Courtesy of Yahoo! Finance