News Bites
* Market Talk: CPO prices will continue their rally up to the middle of 2011 after hitting their highest level in over two year, Lee Yeow Chor, executive director of Malaysia's IOI Corp said.
A local broking house upwardly revised its projection on CPO prices to MYR2.700 per ton for 2010 and 2011 respectively, compared with early projection of MYR2,500 per tons due to weak Malaysian output and strong exports. Its commented that palm oil supply would remain tight in the first half of 2011 and would support the prices. However, CPO prices was expected to be capped to between MYR3,300 and MYR3,500 per ton.
Outlook
* Fundamental: We expect some selling pressure on spillover weakness from crude oil and soyoil losses in last Friday. Watch out the export estimation due today.
* Technical: Reuters Jefferies CRB Index broke down the daily uptrend channel of 307.16 and settled at 303.16 last Friday, signaling further weakness in general commodities in the near term. Also, CPO prices broke down the shortterm hourly uptrend channel with bearish hourly Parabolic SAR, increasing the shortterm selling momentum in the near term.
However, there are no major changes in the bullish daily indicators and hence we believe any correction in the near term is healthy for further price advancement in the long term basis. This is also coincide with the start of daily Elliott primary and minor corrective wave 4 with a rising short-term target of 3216, target of minor corrective wave 4, then 2809, target of primary corrective wave 4. Intraday traders are advised on selling accumulation around 3400 psychology resistant, unless any signs of bottoming and may mean another start of Elliott daily minor or primary impulse wave 5.
#Courtesy Inter-Pacific Securities Sdn Bhd, for enquiries please contact 03-21427586 or email :- tanks@interpac.com.my (please mention my site http://www.fkli.co.cc/ when enquiring)
Showing posts with label CPO Commentary. Show all posts
Showing posts with label CPO Commentary. Show all posts
Monday, November 15, 2010
Friday, November 12, 2010
CPO Commentary
News Bites
* Market Talk: Market expected CPO prices could remain above MYR3,000 per ton for the rest of 2010 till first quarter of 2011 amid shrinking supply and as demand remains strong from China. Meanwhile, concerns of possible lower palm oil production continues as uncertain weather patterns triggered flood in palm oil growing region in Kedah and Perlis.
Outlook
* Fundamental: At the time this report is written, Palm Olein futures traded in Dalian Commodity Exchange is down by 4.07% and soyoil futures in CBOT down by 2.7%. We expect prices to tightly trace these two bourses ahead of weekend positioning.
* Technical: Overall technical remains friendly, though a note of caution emerged from the candlestick reading, whereby a daily long upper shadow occurred yesterday, typically a bearish signal particularly when it occurs near a high price level at or when the product is overbought, which in our case, the daily RSI is overbought at 84.247.
For trading purposes, we would advice trading on the hourly uptrend channel, which should begin the day with a resistance 3474 and support at 3372. The support line of the above mentioned channel coincides with weekly Fibonacci projection support of 3366. A breach of these support levels could potentially bring prices down to 3265, the observed low at Nov 8, and subsequently 3210, the rising gap.
#Courtesy Inter-Pacific Securities Sdn Bhd, for enquiries please contact 03-21427586 or email :- tanks@interpac.com.my (please mention my site http://www.fkli.co.cc/ when enquiring)
* Market Talk: Market expected CPO prices could remain above MYR3,000 per ton for the rest of 2010 till first quarter of 2011 amid shrinking supply and as demand remains strong from China. Meanwhile, concerns of possible lower palm oil production continues as uncertain weather patterns triggered flood in palm oil growing region in Kedah and Perlis.
Outlook
* Fundamental: At the time this report is written, Palm Olein futures traded in Dalian Commodity Exchange is down by 4.07% and soyoil futures in CBOT down by 2.7%. We expect prices to tightly trace these two bourses ahead of weekend positioning.
* Technical: Overall technical remains friendly, though a note of caution emerged from the candlestick reading, whereby a daily long upper shadow occurred yesterday, typically a bearish signal particularly when it occurs near a high price level at or when the product is overbought, which in our case, the daily RSI is overbought at 84.247.
For trading purposes, we would advice trading on the hourly uptrend channel, which should begin the day with a resistance 3474 and support at 3372. The support line of the above mentioned channel coincides with weekly Fibonacci projection support of 3366. A breach of these support levels could potentially bring prices down to 3265, the observed low at Nov 8, and subsequently 3210, the rising gap.
#Courtesy Inter-Pacific Securities Sdn Bhd, for enquiries please contact 03-21427586 or email :- tanks@interpac.com.my (please mention my site http://www.fkli.co.cc/ when enquiring)
Wednesday, November 10, 2010
CPO Commentary
News Bites
* Market Talk: Cargo surveyors ITS and SGS are scheduled to release their Malaysian palm oil export estimations for first 10 days of November today. Investors revised forecast for exports to 393,000 tons from 410,000 tons. ITS pegged the figure for November 1-10 period at 395,015 tons and SGS pegged the figures at 392,828 tons.
Outlook
* Fundamental: We expect CPO prices are likely to continue its upward momentum as fueled by other agricultural commodities. Watch forMPOB data due today.
* Technical: CPO futures broke out the observed high of 3348 yesterday, confirmed a continuation of the current daily Elliott primary impulse wave 3 which coincided with weekly cycle impulse wave 3 with an upside target of 3385 this week.
The RSI readings for hourly, daily and weekly timeframes are again overbought at their 80s. Any further upward momentum toward 3385-3400 vicinity will likely to trigger critical overbought condition for short-term timeframes and lead to a technical correction. Traders are advised to trade cautiously along the hourly uptrend channel of 3179 and 3382.
#Courtesy Inter-Pacific Securities Sdn Bhd, for enquiries please contact 03-21427586 or email :- tanks@interpac.com.my (please mention my site http://www.fkli.co.cc/ when enquiring)
* Market Talk: Cargo surveyors ITS and SGS are scheduled to release their Malaysian palm oil export estimations for first 10 days of November today. Investors revised forecast for exports to 393,000 tons from 410,000 tons. ITS pegged the figure for November 1-10 period at 395,015 tons and SGS pegged the figures at 392,828 tons.
Outlook
* Fundamental: We expect CPO prices are likely to continue its upward momentum as fueled by other agricultural commodities. Watch forMPOB data due today.
* Technical: CPO futures broke out the observed high of 3348 yesterday, confirmed a continuation of the current daily Elliott primary impulse wave 3 which coincided with weekly cycle impulse wave 3 with an upside target of 3385 this week.
The RSI readings for hourly, daily and weekly timeframes are again overbought at their 80s. Any further upward momentum toward 3385-3400 vicinity will likely to trigger critical overbought condition for short-term timeframes and lead to a technical correction. Traders are advised to trade cautiously along the hourly uptrend channel of 3179 and 3382.
#Courtesy Inter-Pacific Securities Sdn Bhd, for enquiries please contact 03-21427586 or email :- tanks@interpac.com.my (please mention my site http://www.fkli.co.cc/ when enquiring)
Tuesday, November 9, 2010
CPO Commentary
News Bites
* Market Talk: Market expected palm oil inventories in October to reach a nine month high of 1.85 million to 1.9 million tons on higher output and weak exports. Meanwhile production was expected to have increased 8%-15% at 1.7 million – 1.8 million tons and imports from Indonesia might reach 100,000 tons.
Outlook
* Fundamental: We expect technical to take precedence today as market awaits the MPOB data scheduled to be released tomorrow.
* Technical: CPO futures again touched a new 28-month high of 3308 in tandem with bullish daily indicators and settled at 3273 yesterday. We however believe the price target for daily Elliott primary impulse wave 3 had accomplished, prices should penetrate lower for a start of primary corrective wave 4 in the near term. This is also mirror the daily minor corrective wave 4 with first downside target of 3137, then 2789, downside target for primary corrective wave 4.
The daily and weekly RSI readings are currently overbought at their 80s, indicating prices may anticipate a short-term correction in the near-term. We would suggest scale up selling with a stop loss at observed high of 3308. Note that, any breakout above 3308 will indicate a continuation of the daily primary and minor impulse wave 3 and prices may jump higher to test the next psychology resistant at 3400.
#Courtesy Inter-Pacific Securities Sdn Bhd, for enquiries please contact 03-21427586 or email :- tanks@interpac.com.my (please mention my site http://www.fkli.co.cc/ when enquiring)
* Market Talk: Market expected palm oil inventories in October to reach a nine month high of 1.85 million to 1.9 million tons on higher output and weak exports. Meanwhile production was expected to have increased 8%-15% at 1.7 million – 1.8 million tons and imports from Indonesia might reach 100,000 tons.
Outlook
* Fundamental: We expect technical to take precedence today as market awaits the MPOB data scheduled to be released tomorrow.
* Technical: CPO futures again touched a new 28-month high of 3308 in tandem with bullish daily indicators and settled at 3273 yesterday. We however believe the price target for daily Elliott primary impulse wave 3 had accomplished, prices should penetrate lower for a start of primary corrective wave 4 in the near term. This is also mirror the daily minor corrective wave 4 with first downside target of 3137, then 2789, downside target for primary corrective wave 4.
The daily and weekly RSI readings are currently overbought at their 80s, indicating prices may anticipate a short-term correction in the near-term. We would suggest scale up selling with a stop loss at observed high of 3308. Note that, any breakout above 3308 will indicate a continuation of the daily primary and minor impulse wave 3 and prices may jump higher to test the next psychology resistant at 3400.
#Courtesy Inter-Pacific Securities Sdn Bhd, for enquiries please contact 03-21427586 or email :- tanks@interpac.com.my (please mention my site http://www.fkli.co.cc/ when enquiring)
Monday, November 8, 2010
CPO Commentary
News Bites
* Market Talk: Renowned analyst Dorab Mistry said CPO futures may hit RM3300 in the next few weeks on weather concerns as back-to-back transition from El Nino to La Nina has caused severe imbalances and as weak dollar triggers funds pouring into commodities as inflation hedge. He expressed concerns that RM3300 a ton of palm may not be sufficient to ration demand as market may require higher prices in December and January to prepare for the tightness between February to May 2011. He added that world demand and supply is very tight even with current production estimates from Brazil and Argentina, thus any loss due to La Nina will make it tighter. He expected Argentine soyoil may rise as much as 10% to $1250 per ton.
Outlook
* Fundamental: We expect prices to move higher as fuelled by higher crude oil and soyoil prices.
* Technical: CPO futures broke out the hourly ascending triangle of 3106 and touched a new 28-month high of 3210 last Thursday. There are no major changes in the bullish daily indicators and prices continue to ride on the weekly Elliott impulse wave 3 with a target of 3241, Fibonacci ratio of 2.618 of wave 1, in the near term based on the Elliott wave principle.
The RSI readings for hourly, daily and weekly timeframes are currently overbought at 80, 76 and 78 respectively. Any further buying momentum toward 3241 will likely to trigger the extreme overbought RSI condition and lead to a technical correction, coincide with the start of weekly Elliott correction wave 4. Traders are advised to hold on their long position unless any signs of toppings. Note that, an extension wave 3 is always possible based on Elliott wave principle.
#Courtesy Inter-Pacific Securities Sdn Bhd, for enquiries please contact 03-21427586 or email :- tanks@interpac.com.my (please mention my site http://www.fkli.co.cc/ when enquiring)
* Market Talk: Renowned analyst Dorab Mistry said CPO futures may hit RM3300 in the next few weeks on weather concerns as back-to-back transition from El Nino to La Nina has caused severe imbalances and as weak dollar triggers funds pouring into commodities as inflation hedge. He expressed concerns that RM3300 a ton of palm may not be sufficient to ration demand as market may require higher prices in December and January to prepare for the tightness between February to May 2011. He added that world demand and supply is very tight even with current production estimates from Brazil and Argentina, thus any loss due to La Nina will make it tighter. He expected Argentine soyoil may rise as much as 10% to $1250 per ton.
Outlook
* Fundamental: We expect prices to move higher as fuelled by higher crude oil and soyoil prices.
* Technical: CPO futures broke out the hourly ascending triangle of 3106 and touched a new 28-month high of 3210 last Thursday. There are no major changes in the bullish daily indicators and prices continue to ride on the weekly Elliott impulse wave 3 with a target of 3241, Fibonacci ratio of 2.618 of wave 1, in the near term based on the Elliott wave principle.
The RSI readings for hourly, daily and weekly timeframes are currently overbought at 80, 76 and 78 respectively. Any further buying momentum toward 3241 will likely to trigger the extreme overbought RSI condition and lead to a technical correction, coincide with the start of weekly Elliott correction wave 4. Traders are advised to hold on their long position unless any signs of toppings. Note that, an extension wave 3 is always possible based on Elliott wave principle.
#Courtesy Inter-Pacific Securities Sdn Bhd, for enquiries please contact 03-21427586 or email :- tanks@interpac.com.my (please mention my site http://www.fkli.co.cc/ when enquiring)
Tuesday, November 2, 2010
CPO Commentary
News Bites
* Market Talk: CPO prices are likely to take a breather as weak export data points to higher stockpile level in October. Market expects palm oil inventory level to reach 1.85 million tons in October. However, concerns on annual monsoon which starts in November which might likely disrupt harvesting and lower palm output may limit the downside of prices.
Outlook
* Fundamental: We expect higher opening on overnight gains in crude oil and soyoil prices. Watch out technical for trade today.
* Technical: CPO futures broke out the hourly ascending triangle of 3086 and closed at 3092 yesterday, confirmed the short-term chart pattern with an upside target of 111 points at 3195 in the near term. Conversely, a daily spinning top candle formed yesterday, signifying prices are losing momentum and the bull may be in trouble particular when prices near its new high or during a rally. We however believe a confirmation candle to close below 3061, low of current spinning top candle, is required to confirm the reversal chart pattern.
We would advice on buying accumulation on technical correction with a stop loss at 3000, daily Parabolic SAR, and for those shorter term traders may put their stop level at 3061 as any convincing breakdown below the above said support may mean a pause to the current medium-term uptrend. Immediate resistant should refer to 3100 psychology level, then 3195, short-term target of hourly ascending triangle breakout on Nov 1.
#Courtesy Inter-Pacific Securities Sdn Bhd, for enquiries please contact 03-21427586 or email :- tanks@interpac.com.my (please mention my site http://www.fkli.co.cc/ when enquiring)
* Market Talk: CPO prices are likely to take a breather as weak export data points to higher stockpile level in October. Market expects palm oil inventory level to reach 1.85 million tons in October. However, concerns on annual monsoon which starts in November which might likely disrupt harvesting and lower palm output may limit the downside of prices.
Outlook
* Fundamental: We expect higher opening on overnight gains in crude oil and soyoil prices. Watch out technical for trade today.
* Technical: CPO futures broke out the hourly ascending triangle of 3086 and closed at 3092 yesterday, confirmed the short-term chart pattern with an upside target of 111 points at 3195 in the near term. Conversely, a daily spinning top candle formed yesterday, signifying prices are losing momentum and the bull may be in trouble particular when prices near its new high or during a rally. We however believe a confirmation candle to close below 3061, low of current spinning top candle, is required to confirm the reversal chart pattern.
We would advice on buying accumulation on technical correction with a stop loss at 3000, daily Parabolic SAR, and for those shorter term traders may put their stop level at 3061 as any convincing breakdown below the above said support may mean a pause to the current medium-term uptrend. Immediate resistant should refer to 3100 psychology level, then 3195, short-term target of hourly ascending triangle breakout on Nov 1.
#Courtesy Inter-Pacific Securities Sdn Bhd, for enquiries please contact 03-21427586 or email :- tanks@interpac.com.my (please mention my site http://www.fkli.co.cc/ when enquiring)
Monday, November 1, 2010
CPO Commentary
News Bites-
* Market Talk: Continues talk has that October exports are likely to be steady, however exports in November should be higher due to the export levy set by Indonesia would made Malaysia palm oil the cheaper option to purchase. Moreover, China is likely to step up purchases for the Lunar New Year in February.
Outlook:
* Fundamental: CPO futures are likely to be supportive on bullish forecast and talk on higher export in November. Watch out export estimation due today.
* Technical: CPO futures corrected 24 points after an aggressive buying on Oct 28 and settled at 3068 last Friday. Note that, there is a formation of hourly ascending triangle in tandem with bullish daily indicators. Any breakout above 3086 will confirm the hourly ascending triangle breakout with 111 points price target at 3197 in the near term. With intradays’ RSI back to neutral ground, we would suggest on buying on technical correction with a tight stop loss at 3035, low of hourly ascending triangle, and for those shorter term traders to buy upon technical breakout above 3086. Should prices successfully cling on to 3086 level on closing basis today, prices may test 3100 psychology level. But should prices close below 3086, prices might likely continue consolidating within the range of hourly ascending triangle around 3035 and 3086 in the near term.
#Courtesy Inter-Pacific Securities Sdn Bhd, for enquiries please contact 03-21427586 or email :- tanks@interpac.com.my (please mention my site http://www.fkli.co.cc/ when enquiring)
* Market Talk: Continues talk has that October exports are likely to be steady, however exports in November should be higher due to the export levy set by Indonesia would made Malaysia palm oil the cheaper option to purchase. Moreover, China is likely to step up purchases for the Lunar New Year in February.
Outlook:
* Fundamental: CPO futures are likely to be supportive on bullish forecast and talk on higher export in November. Watch out export estimation due today.
* Technical: CPO futures corrected 24 points after an aggressive buying on Oct 28 and settled at 3068 last Friday. Note that, there is a formation of hourly ascending triangle in tandem with bullish daily indicators. Any breakout above 3086 will confirm the hourly ascending triangle breakout with 111 points price target at 3197 in the near term. With intradays’ RSI back to neutral ground, we would suggest on buying on technical correction with a tight stop loss at 3035, low of hourly ascending triangle, and for those shorter term traders to buy upon technical breakout above 3086. Should prices successfully cling on to 3086 level on closing basis today, prices may test 3100 psychology level. But should prices close below 3086, prices might likely continue consolidating within the range of hourly ascending triangle around 3035 and 3086 in the near term.
#Courtesy Inter-Pacific Securities Sdn Bhd, for enquiries please contact 03-21427586 or email :- tanks@interpac.com.my (please mention my site http://www.fkli.co.cc/ when enquiring)
Friday, October 29, 2010
CPO Commentary
News Bites-
* Market Talk: Malaysia palm oil exports in October is likely to increase a tad by 2%-3% on month, while exports in November is likely to increase more as Indonesia's export levy would make rival Malaysia palm oil a cheaper alternative. Production is likely to taper off as seasonally high palm output period ended and annual monsoon season begins, which might prompt further decline in production and a drawdown in stockpile level.
Outlook-
* Fundamental: Expect CPO prices to be supportive on talk of higher export.
* Technical: CPO futures touched a new 27-month high again and settled at 3085 yesterday. The buying momentum also triggered hourly MACD into bullish mode and confirmed the breakout above the hourly “bull flag” of 2931 on Oct 27 with a short-term target of 3140 in the near term.
The daily, hourly and 15minutes RSI readings are however overbought at their 70s, indicating possible shortterm correction in the near term. Would suggest on buying accumulation after a correction on intradays’ RSI readings. Immediate support and resistance should refer to observed low of 3010 and 3100 psychology level, then 3140 to cap more upward momentum in the near term.
#Courtesy Inter-Pacific Securities Sdn Bhd, for enquiries please contact 03-21427586 or email :- tanks@interpac.com.my (please mention my site http://www.fkli.co.cc/ when enquiring)
* Market Talk: Malaysia palm oil exports in October is likely to increase a tad by 2%-3% on month, while exports in November is likely to increase more as Indonesia's export levy would make rival Malaysia palm oil a cheaper alternative. Production is likely to taper off as seasonally high palm output period ended and annual monsoon season begins, which might prompt further decline in production and a drawdown in stockpile level.
Outlook-
* Fundamental: Expect CPO prices to be supportive on talk of higher export.
* Technical: CPO futures touched a new 27-month high again and settled at 3085 yesterday. The buying momentum also triggered hourly MACD into bullish mode and confirmed the breakout above the hourly “bull flag” of 2931 on Oct 27 with a short-term target of 3140 in the near term.
The daily, hourly and 15minutes RSI readings are however overbought at their 70s, indicating possible shortterm correction in the near term. Would suggest on buying accumulation after a correction on intradays’ RSI readings. Immediate support and resistance should refer to observed low of 3010 and 3100 psychology level, then 3140 to cap more upward momentum in the near term.
#Courtesy Inter-Pacific Securities Sdn Bhd, for enquiries please contact 03-21427586 or email :- tanks@interpac.com.my (please mention my site http://www.fkli.co.cc/ when enquiring)
Thursday, October 28, 2010
CPO Commentary
News Bites-
* Market Talk: Talk that chinese regulators moves to tightening trading rules to curb speculation and cool inflation in China, as well as likely weaker India edible oils imports may both place pressure on soyoil and palm oil market. A local broking house commented that CPO prices are likely to fall towards RM2,950 a ton in the near future due to the above given reasons.
Outlook-
* Fundamental: Expect selling pressure on bearish fundamental ahead. Watch for technical to trade.
* Technical: Another daily hanging man candle formed yesterday. A particular pattern signifying bullish reversal and prices are losing some upward momentum. The candle also alike bearish dragonfly doji pattern where opening and closing are nearly identical wihout an upper wick on top, a much stronger and reliable candle compare with hanging man offering bearish signal. note that, open interest for February contract jump 71.7% or 5512 lots from 7,686 to 13,198 lots while benchmark January contract only increased 4.2% or 1136 lots to 28,062 lots, likely indication traders are building up their position in February contract.
With mix technical indications, would expect prices to consolidate between 3010, low of Aug 27 , and 3084, high of Oct 25, pending any breakout to provide a clearer picture in near term.
#Courtesy Inter-Pacific Securities Sdn Bhd, for enquiries please contact 03-21427586 or email :- tanks@interpac.com.my (please mention my site http://www.fkli.co.cc/ when enquiring)
* Market Talk: Talk that chinese regulators moves to tightening trading rules to curb speculation and cool inflation in China, as well as likely weaker India edible oils imports may both place pressure on soyoil and palm oil market. A local broking house commented that CPO prices are likely to fall towards RM2,950 a ton in the near future due to the above given reasons.
Outlook-
* Fundamental: Expect selling pressure on bearish fundamental ahead. Watch for technical to trade.
* Technical: Another daily hanging man candle formed yesterday. A particular pattern signifying bullish reversal and prices are losing some upward momentum. The candle also alike bearish dragonfly doji pattern where opening and closing are nearly identical wihout an upper wick on top, a much stronger and reliable candle compare with hanging man offering bearish signal. note that, open interest for February contract jump 71.7% or 5512 lots from 7,686 to 13,198 lots while benchmark January contract only increased 4.2% or 1136 lots to 28,062 lots, likely indication traders are building up their position in February contract.
With mix technical indications, would expect prices to consolidate between 3010, low of Aug 27 , and 3084, high of Oct 25, pending any breakout to provide a clearer picture in near term.
#Courtesy Inter-Pacific Securities Sdn Bhd, for enquiries please contact 03-21427586 or email :- tanks@interpac.com.my (please mention my site http://www.fkli.co.cc/ when enquiring)
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