my RULES

1. "MUST" take every signal shown by system
2. "NEVER" invest > 30% out from capital, balance capital for backup
3. "INCREASE" position only after 20-30% increase in capital

*Futures Crude Palm Oil: current position for GT2
Step 1: Holding> February contract LONG 3053 (01.12.11)
Step 2: Stop> i dont use STOP!!
Step 3: Entry> No SAR signal yet..

*Futures Kuala Lumpur Index: current position for RJ1
Step 1: Holding> LONG 1436 November (24.11.11)
Step 2: Stop> i dont use STOP!!
Step 3: Entry> No SAR signal yet..

*will be updated after market

*PLEASE SCROLL DOWN DOWN DOWN TO VIEW MY GT2 SYSTEM PERFORMANCE

Wise Words from Ed Seykota

If I am bullish, I neither buy on a reaction, nor wait for strength; I am already in. I turn bullish at the instant my buy stop is hit, and stay bullish until my sell stop is hit. Being bullish and not being long is illogical. ~ "Market Wizards, Interview with Top Traders - Jack D. Schwager"

Thursday, July 7, 2011

CPO price falling to dip below RM3,000 per tonne due to rising inventory and decreasing demand

By SHARIDAN M.ALI
sharidan@thestar.com.my

PETALING JAYA: Crude palm oil (CPO) price is likely to fall below RM3,000 per tonne over the next two weeks due to rising inventory and decreasing demand, traders and analysts said.

The last time CPO three-month futures was below the RM3,000 per tonne level was on Oct 21, 2010 at RM2,990. Since then it had been climbing to reach a peak of RM3,955 on Feb 11.

The CPO three-month futures price had been on a declining trend for the past five months to close at RM3,029 per tonne, down RM11 yesterday.

Malaysia's CPO stock and production, which have been climbing since February, are playing their part to further suppress the CPO price. Malaysia is the second largest palm oil producer globally after Indonesia.

The latest numbers according to the Malaysian Palm Oil Board (MPOB) monthly statistical data for May showed month-on-month palm oil stocks rose nearly 15% to their highest in 16 months as production overtook exports.

Palm oil stocks in May rose to 1.92 million tonnes from 1.67 million tonnes a month before a level unseen since January 2010 while CPO production shot up by 13.74% to 1.74 million tonnes.

Interband Group of Companies senior palm oil trader Jim Teh expected the CPO price to scale back to around RM2,800 per tonne within the next two weeks as demand was sliding due to the “expensive” CPO price and higher inventory.

“The current CPO price is considered expensive for physical' buyers to keep high inventory on the commodity. They would just buy the CPO as and when they needed it,” he said, adding that besides demand, paper trading of CPO also helped to ramp up its price.

Teh said the healthy production levels in the past three months were supported by good weather that resulted in robust fresh fruit bunches yields.

Nevertheless, Teh argued that even at RM2,800 per tonne, the margin was still good as the production cost of CPO per tonne hovered around RM1,200 to RM1,500.

“It will be a good correction and a breather for the physical buyers to come in and buy CPO as well as to clear the mounting palm oil stock,” he told StarBiz, adding that CPO prices had been rallying since 2006.

The decrease in CPO prices would also very much depend on the latest level of inventory where MPOB is expected to release its June monthly data early next week.

Meanwhile, IJM Plantations Bhd chief executive officer and managing director Joseph Tek Choon Yee remained optimistic that the average CPO price for calendar year 2011 would be higher than last year's RM2,745 and there was still room for it to average at RM3,000.

“The widening soy bean-palm oil discount, presently at US$237 will make palm oil very attractive for soy bean oil buyers such as India. This will certainly lend support to subsequent purchases,” he said.

On rising stockpile, Tek said CPO backed by fresh fruit bunches production was on the rise as the oil palms were recovering from the double whammy weather effects arising from El Nino and La Nina last year and early part of this year.

“This production figures leading toward rising stockpile and lower crude oil prices appear to set some level of panic' selling and lends support to opportunity buying,” he said.

Another analyst, sharing similar views with Teh, also anticipated that the CPO price would dip below the RM3,000 level.

“The inventory level is just quite high right now. Maybe retailers are waiting to buy just before the festive season starting in August.

“The declining CPO prices were also influenced by lower soy bean prices,” he said.

Muslims around the world will start fasting for the whole of August before celebrating the Aidil Fitri.

Palm oil expert Dorab Mistry, director of Godrej International Ltd, was quoted by Bloomberg yesterday as saying the velocity of CPO production was unbelievable.

In April, Mistry revised his earlier CPO forecast given the anticipation of higher global palm oil production this year.

He expected the RM3,000 per tonne price support to be broken and push CPO prices to trade even lower going forward.

OSK Research, which analysed the CPO futures market in June for a few times over a period of three weeks, said that its technical landscape had deteriorated at every subsequent analysis.

“Our major talking point last month was the bottom point of the “non-classical hammer”, or the RM3,163 per tonne level. This is because the RM3,163 per tonne level has been the support floor for the market's six-month old sideways trend.

“However, this crucial low was violated last week and it looks like this violation of the key RM3,103 per tonne support level has confirmed a breakdown,” it said in a report earlier this week.

But, the research house said since the violation of this level was not aggressive enough, it could not tell for sure at this point of time if the RM3,163 per tonne level had been decisively taken out.

“Hence, to confirm that the lowest point of the “non-classical hammer” has really been violated, we would have to wait until prices fall below last week's low of RM3,031 per tonne level,” it said.


**PS>> I love this kind of news from our super analyst.. hehe, go down within 2weeks under 3k posible, my signal also showing i still holding SHOT 3259 for September contract rollover from August contract initial SHOT 3362.. this is the STAR link : I DO HOPE ALL THIS ANALYST ALREADY SHOT WAY HIGHER THEN ME.. muahahahaha

4 comments:

kanneenah said...

It's a tip.. CPO has bottomed out already! Hahaha

Anonymous said...

By the time experts' opinions agree with each other, market will reverse. Who else left to short, when the expert already "reveal" their "secret" analysis to public???

kanneenah said...

Goh,
Newspapers will always print such articles when the trend is obvious and it 'looks' like they can't be wrong with their predictions.
But they'll always be wrong...hahaha

gt said...

normal la goh, analyst too clever to understand the market pulse or with right word the psychology of a trader. i bet a lot amateur traders including those analyst also "kena" conned.. hahaha

CPO 2011 (GT2 System Performance)

MAY 2011 contract
1)17.02>LONG 3729-SELL 3623 = -106 (21.02)

2)21.02>SHOT 3623-BUY 3538 = +85 (23.02)

3)23.02>LONG 3538-SELL 3518 = -20 (28.02)

4)24.02>SHOT 3506-BUY 3413 x 2lots = +186 (24.02)

5)28.02>SHOT 3518-BUY 3525 = -7 (01.03)

6)01.03>LONG 3525-SELL 3625 = +100 (08.03)

7)08.03>SHOT 3625-BUY 3598 = +27 (09.03)

8)09.03>LONG 3598-SELL 3406 = -192 (11.03)

9)10.03>SHOT 3501-BUY 3473 x 2lots = +56 (10.03)

10)11.03>SHOT 3406-BUY 3347 = +59 (14.03)

11)14.03>LONG 3347-SELL 3371 = +24 (15.03)

JUNE 2011 contract
12)15.03>LONG 3360-SELL 3434 = +74 (21.03)

13)21.03>SHOT 3434-BUY 3347 = +87 (23.03)

14)23.03>LONG 3347-SELL 3425 = +78 (11.04)

15)24.03>SHOT 3287-BUY 3249 x 2lots = +76 (24.03)

16)31.03>SHOT 3302-BUY 3343 x 2lots= -82 (31.03)

17)05.04>SHOT 3368.5-BUY 3365 x 2lots= +7 (05.04)

18)07.04>SHOT 3339-BUY 3342 x 2lots= -6 (07.04)

19)11.04>SHOT 3425-BUY 3344 = +81 (13.04)

20)13.04>LONG 3344-SELL 3307 = -37 (14.04)

21)14.04>SHOT 3307-BUY 3269 = +38 (18.04)

JULY 2011 contract
22)18.04>LONG 3253-SELL 3355 = +102 (25.04)

23)19.04>SHOT 3220-BUY 3240 x 2lots = -40 (19.04)

24)25.04>SHOT 3355-BUY 3334 = +21 (26.04)

25)26.04>LONG 3334-SELL 3290 = -44 (27.04)

26)27.04>SHOT 3290-BUY 3320 = -30 (28.04)

27)28.04>LONG 3320-SELL 3243 = -77 (04.05)

28)04.05>SHOT 3243-BUY 3277 = -34 (05.05)

29)05.05>LONG 3277-SELL 3175 = -102 (06.05)

30)06.05>SHOT 3175-BUY 3203 = -28 (09.05)

31)09.05>LONG 3203-SELL 3264 =+61 (10.05)

32)10.05>SHOT 3264-BUY 3252 = +12 (13.05)

33)13.05>LONG 3252-SELL 3370 = +118 (19.05)

AUGUST 2011 contract
34)19.05>LONG 3339-SELL 3388 = +49 (23.05)

35)23.05>SHOT 3388-BUY 3385 = +3 (24.05)

36)24.05>LONG 3385-SELL 3370 = -15 (25.05)

37)25.05>SHOT 3370-BUY 3386 = -16 (25.05)

38)25.05>LONG 3386-SELL 3418 = +32 (26.05)

39)26.05>SHOT 3418-BUY 3439 = -21 (26.05)

40)26.05>LONG 3439-SELL 3405 = -34 (26.05)

41)26.05>SHOT 3405-BUY 3442 = -37 (27.05)

42)27.05>LONG 3442-SELL 3440 = -2 (30.05)

43)30.05>SHOT 3440-BUY 3373 = +67 (02.06)

44)02.06>LONG 3373-SELL 3441 = +68 (03.06)

45)03.06>SHOT 3441-BUY 3254 = +187 (13.06)

46)13.06>LONG 3254-SELL 3256 = +2 (16.06)

SEPTEMBER 2011 contract
47)16.06>SHOT 3254-BUY 3215 = +39 (20.06)

48)20.06>LONG 3215-SELL 3212 = -3 (22.06)

49)22.06>SHOT 3212-BUY 3178 = +34 (23.06)

50)23.06>LONG 3178-SELL 3144 = -34 (24.06)

51)24.06>SHOT 3144-BUY 3121 = +23 (24.06)

52)24.06>LONG 3121-SELL 3076 = -45 (27.06)

53)27.06>SHOT 3076-BUY 3080 = -4 (28.06)

54)28.06>LONG 3080-SELL 3113 = +33 (30.06)

55)30.06>SHOT 3113-BUY 3071 = +42 (04.07)

56)04.07>LONG 3071-SELL 3054 = -17 (04.07)

57)04.07>SHOT 3054-BUY 3046 = +8 (06.07)

58)06.07>LONG 3046-SELL 3074 = +28 (08.07)

59)08.07>SHOT 3074-BUY 3045 = +29 (12.07)

60)12.07>LONG 3045-SELL 3115 = +70 (15.07)

61)15.07>SHOT 3115-BUY 3134 = -19 (18.07)

OCTOBER 2011 contract
62)18.07>SHOT 3125-BUY 3082 = +43 (19.07)

63)19.07>LONG 3082-SELL 3140 = +58 (21.07)

64)21.07>SHOT 3140-BUY 3100 = +40 (25.07)

65)25.07>LONG 3100-SELL 3115 = +15 (28.07)

66)28.07>SHOT 3115-BUY 3123 = -8 (28.07)

67)28.07>LONG 3123-SELL 3086 = -37 (29.07)

68)29.07>SHOT 3086-BUY 3100 = -14 (29.07)

69)29.07>LONG 3100-SELL 3120 = +20 (02.08)

70)02.08>SHOT 3120-BUY 3137 = -17 (03.08)

71)03.08>LONG 3137-SELL 3116 = -21 (04.08)

72)04.08>SHOT 3116-BUY 3050 = +66 (05.08)

73)05.08>LONG 3050-SELL 3033 = -17 (08.08)

74)08.08>SHOT 3033-BUY 2959 = +74 (09.08)

75)09.08>LONG 2959-SELL 3004 = +45 (12.08)

76)12.08>SHOT 3004-BUY 3054 = -50 (15.08)

77)15.08>LONG 3054-SELL 3057 * = +3 (15.08) *sell because chart hang from 3pm.

NOVEMBER 2011 contract
78)16.08>SHOT 3019-BUY 3025 = -6 (17.08)

79)17.08>LONG 3025-SELL 3003 = -22 (19.08)

80)19.08>SHOT 3000-BUY 3045 = -45 (23.08)

81)23.08>LONG 3045-SELL 3051 = +6 (24.08)

82)24.08>SHOT 3051-BUY 2978 = +73 (26.08)

83)26.08>LONG 2978-SELL 3037 = +59 (05.09) #NO TRADE because raya holiday!!

84)05.09>SHOT 3037-LONG 3007 = +30 (06.09) #NO TRADE because of Bursa feed problem!!

85)06.09>LONG 3007-SELL 3032 = +25 (08.09)

86)08.09>SHOT 3032-BUY 3055 = -23 (09.09)

87)09.09>LONG 3055-SELL 3021 = -34 (13.09) *

88)13.09>SHOT 3021-LONG 3023 = -2 (14.09)

89)14.09>LONG 3023-SELL 2993 = -30 (14.09)

90)14.09>SELL 2993-BUY 3009 = -16 (14.09)

91)14.09>LONG 3009-SELL 3038 = +29 (19.09)

DECEMBER 2011 contract
92)19.09>LONG 3038-SELL 3028 = -10 (22.09)

93)22.09>SHOT 3028-BUY 2915 = +113 (26.09)

94)26.09>LONG 2915-SELL 2886 = -29 (28.09)

95)28.09>SHOT 2886-BUY 2898 = -12 (29.09)

96)29.09>LONG 2898-SELL 2826 = -72 (04.10)

97)04.10>SHOT 2826-BUY 2775 = +51 (06.10)

98)06.10>LONG 2775-SELL 2783 = +8 (07.10)

99)07.10>SHOT 2783-BUY 2866 = -83 (12.10)

100)12.10>LONG 2866-SELL 2838 = -28 (13.10)

101)13.10>SHOT 2838-BUY 2876 = -38 (14.10)

102)14.10>LONG 2876-SELL 2824 = -52 (18.10)

JANUARY 2012 contract
103)18.10>SHOT 2832-BUY 2874 = -42 (19.10)

104)19.10>LONG 2874-SELL 2986 = +112 (27.10)

105)27.10>SHOT 2986-BUY 2947 = +39 (02.11)

106)02.11>LONG 2947-SELL 2937 = -10 (03.11)

107)03.11>SHOT 2937-BUY 2970 = -33 (03.11)

108)03.11>LONG 2970-SELL 2993 = +23 (04.11)

109)04.11>SHOT 2993-BUY 3018 = -25 (04.11)

110)04.11>LONG 3018-SELL 3030 = +12 (09.11)

111)09.11>SHOT 3030-BUY 3085 = -55 (10.11) ##

112)10.11>LONG 3085-SHOT 3163 = +78 (14.11)

113)14.11>SHOT 3163-LONG 3199 = -36 (15.11)

114)15.11>LONG 3199-SELL 3188 = -11 (15.11)

FEBRUARY 2012 contract
115)15.11>SHOT 3188-BUY 3230 = -42 (16.11)

116)16.11>LONG 3229-SELL 3239 = +10 (17.11)

117)17.11>SHOT 3239-BUY 3261 = -22 (18.11)

118)18.11>LONG 3261-SELL 3216 = -45 (21.11)

119)21.11>SHOT 3216-BUY 3182 = +34 (22.11)

120)22.11>LONG 3182-SELL 3147 = -35 (23.11)

121)23.11>SHOT 3147-BUY 3130 = +17 (24.11)

122)24.11>LONG 3130-SELL 3080 = -50 (25.11)

123)25.11>SHOT 3080-BUY 3053 = +27 (01.12)

124)01.12>LONG 3053-SELL ?? =


TOTAL POINTS = From 1st Jan 2011>> +1273 points