my RULES

1. "MUST" take every signal shown by system
2. "NEVER" invest > 30% out from capital, balance capital for backup
3. "INCREASE" position only after 20-30% increase in capital

*Futures Crude Palm Oil: current position for GT2
Step 1: Holding> February contract LONG 3053 (01.12.11)
Step 2: Stop> i dont use STOP!!
Step 3: Entry> No SAR signal yet..

*Futures Kuala Lumpur Index: current position for RJ1
Step 1: Holding> LONG 1436 November (24.11.11)
Step 2: Stop> i dont use STOP!!
Step 3: Entry> No SAR signal yet..

*will be updated after market

*PLEASE SCROLL DOWN DOWN DOWN TO VIEW MY GT2 SYSTEM PERFORMANCE

Wise Words from Ed Seykota

If I am bullish, I neither buy on a reaction, nor wait for strength; I am already in. I turn bullish at the instant my buy stop is hit, and stay bullish until my sell stop is hit. Being bullish and not being long is illogical. ~ "Market Wizards, Interview with Top Traders - Jack D. Schwager"

Thursday, November 20, 2008

Recession or Depression? Finding the Trigger ...

Recession or Depression? Finding the Trigger ...
Posted By:Daryl Guppy

The key question facing markets these days is the difference between recession and depression. A recession is an economic slowdown that may last for 6 to 18 months. A depression is an economic pullback that may last from two to four years. We'd rather not have a recession at all but if we have to choose one or the other, I'd rather be recessed than depressed!

In either case, the market moves in anticipation of the event. The market decline develops before the fundamental signs of a recession or depression become evident. The market leads the confirmation of conditions.

The market also leads a recovery. In a recession, the market will develop strong trending behavior many months prior to the official confirmation of the end of a recession. This recovery provides trend trading opportunities.

In a depression the market will develop a long-term consolidation pattern. This is an investment period that lays the foundations for generational fortunes. Trend-trading opportunities do not develop for several years. This consolidation and accumulation phase concentrates on creating income flow from dividends. The fundamental end of a depression is not recognized until many months after the market has already reacted.

Right now, market is hovering near significant support levels. The closest of these we call recession support targets. The lowest of these we call depression targets. Many analysts have compared the current market situation to the market collapse in 1929. This week we look at charts from the 1929 period. In particular we look at the similarity of behavior.


The above chart is the weekly Dow for 1929 to 1930. The significant features are these:
  • The rapid fall is followed by a rebound and rebound failure.
  • The primary rebound failure occurs rapidly with another market collapse.
  • The pile driver low is retested within 12 months
  • Support, defined by the pile driver low, is not successful

The pink circle shows the comparable position of today’s market. This is a period of high volatility, but volatility lessens and the market moves into a more clearly defined trending behavior. This pattern of behavior suggests that a rebound from the current support levels may persist for around 20 weeks.

The important feature is the rapid failure of the trend line followed by a rapid failure of the pile driver low support-level. The failure of pile driver support brings the really bad news. This failure is acute because the pile driver low support does not equal any previous historical support level.

The low of the market develops in 1932, about three years after the 1929 crash. The key trigger is the failure of support set by the pile driver low. The disaster is that it takes 25 years for the market to exceed the high of 380 set in July 1929. This is why the Depression is referred to as a generational event. The current situation has the potential to have the same generational impact.


The key trigger that separates a recession from a depression is the behavior of the rebound from the pile driver low. After the 1987 crash the rebound quickly developed strong trending behavior. The move above the midway point in the market fall signaled a continuation of the uptrend. This is recession behavior. Depression behavior is when the market fails to move above the midpoint of the extreme fall area.

On the current Dow chart, the area near 12,000 is the key level to watch. Failure to move above this level suggests a depression scenario may develop.

A sustained move above 12,000 signals a recession. There is one caution in this analysis. The Dow has not yet developed a confirmed pile driver bottom pattern on the weekly chart. The low of this pattern will determine the mid-point resistance level that is used to signal a recession recovery.

Markets will not behave the same way as in 1930, but they will develop in a similar fashion. There is a high probability that these behaviors will develop in shorter time frames.

No comments:

CPO 2011 (GT2 System Performance)

MAY 2011 contract
1)17.02>LONG 3729-SELL 3623 = -106 (21.02)

2)21.02>SHOT 3623-BUY 3538 = +85 (23.02)

3)23.02>LONG 3538-SELL 3518 = -20 (28.02)

4)24.02>SHOT 3506-BUY 3413 x 2lots = +186 (24.02)

5)28.02>SHOT 3518-BUY 3525 = -7 (01.03)

6)01.03>LONG 3525-SELL 3625 = +100 (08.03)

7)08.03>SHOT 3625-BUY 3598 = +27 (09.03)

8)09.03>LONG 3598-SELL 3406 = -192 (11.03)

9)10.03>SHOT 3501-BUY 3473 x 2lots = +56 (10.03)

10)11.03>SHOT 3406-BUY 3347 = +59 (14.03)

11)14.03>LONG 3347-SELL 3371 = +24 (15.03)

JUNE 2011 contract
12)15.03>LONG 3360-SELL 3434 = +74 (21.03)

13)21.03>SHOT 3434-BUY 3347 = +87 (23.03)

14)23.03>LONG 3347-SELL 3425 = +78 (11.04)

15)24.03>SHOT 3287-BUY 3249 x 2lots = +76 (24.03)

16)31.03>SHOT 3302-BUY 3343 x 2lots= -82 (31.03)

17)05.04>SHOT 3368.5-BUY 3365 x 2lots= +7 (05.04)

18)07.04>SHOT 3339-BUY 3342 x 2lots= -6 (07.04)

19)11.04>SHOT 3425-BUY 3344 = +81 (13.04)

20)13.04>LONG 3344-SELL 3307 = -37 (14.04)

21)14.04>SHOT 3307-BUY 3269 = +38 (18.04)

JULY 2011 contract
22)18.04>LONG 3253-SELL 3355 = +102 (25.04)

23)19.04>SHOT 3220-BUY 3240 x 2lots = -40 (19.04)

24)25.04>SHOT 3355-BUY 3334 = +21 (26.04)

25)26.04>LONG 3334-SELL 3290 = -44 (27.04)

26)27.04>SHOT 3290-BUY 3320 = -30 (28.04)

27)28.04>LONG 3320-SELL 3243 = -77 (04.05)

28)04.05>SHOT 3243-BUY 3277 = -34 (05.05)

29)05.05>LONG 3277-SELL 3175 = -102 (06.05)

30)06.05>SHOT 3175-BUY 3203 = -28 (09.05)

31)09.05>LONG 3203-SELL 3264 =+61 (10.05)

32)10.05>SHOT 3264-BUY 3252 = +12 (13.05)

33)13.05>LONG 3252-SELL 3370 = +118 (19.05)

AUGUST 2011 contract
34)19.05>LONG 3339-SELL 3388 = +49 (23.05)

35)23.05>SHOT 3388-BUY 3385 = +3 (24.05)

36)24.05>LONG 3385-SELL 3370 = -15 (25.05)

37)25.05>SHOT 3370-BUY 3386 = -16 (25.05)

38)25.05>LONG 3386-SELL 3418 = +32 (26.05)

39)26.05>SHOT 3418-BUY 3439 = -21 (26.05)

40)26.05>LONG 3439-SELL 3405 = -34 (26.05)

41)26.05>SHOT 3405-BUY 3442 = -37 (27.05)

42)27.05>LONG 3442-SELL 3440 = -2 (30.05)

43)30.05>SHOT 3440-BUY 3373 = +67 (02.06)

44)02.06>LONG 3373-SELL 3441 = +68 (03.06)

45)03.06>SHOT 3441-BUY 3254 = +187 (13.06)

46)13.06>LONG 3254-SELL 3256 = +2 (16.06)

SEPTEMBER 2011 contract
47)16.06>SHOT 3254-BUY 3215 = +39 (20.06)

48)20.06>LONG 3215-SELL 3212 = -3 (22.06)

49)22.06>SHOT 3212-BUY 3178 = +34 (23.06)

50)23.06>LONG 3178-SELL 3144 = -34 (24.06)

51)24.06>SHOT 3144-BUY 3121 = +23 (24.06)

52)24.06>LONG 3121-SELL 3076 = -45 (27.06)

53)27.06>SHOT 3076-BUY 3080 = -4 (28.06)

54)28.06>LONG 3080-SELL 3113 = +33 (30.06)

55)30.06>SHOT 3113-BUY 3071 = +42 (04.07)

56)04.07>LONG 3071-SELL 3054 = -17 (04.07)

57)04.07>SHOT 3054-BUY 3046 = +8 (06.07)

58)06.07>LONG 3046-SELL 3074 = +28 (08.07)

59)08.07>SHOT 3074-BUY 3045 = +29 (12.07)

60)12.07>LONG 3045-SELL 3115 = +70 (15.07)

61)15.07>SHOT 3115-BUY 3134 = -19 (18.07)

OCTOBER 2011 contract
62)18.07>SHOT 3125-BUY 3082 = +43 (19.07)

63)19.07>LONG 3082-SELL 3140 = +58 (21.07)

64)21.07>SHOT 3140-BUY 3100 = +40 (25.07)

65)25.07>LONG 3100-SELL 3115 = +15 (28.07)

66)28.07>SHOT 3115-BUY 3123 = -8 (28.07)

67)28.07>LONG 3123-SELL 3086 = -37 (29.07)

68)29.07>SHOT 3086-BUY 3100 = -14 (29.07)

69)29.07>LONG 3100-SELL 3120 = +20 (02.08)

70)02.08>SHOT 3120-BUY 3137 = -17 (03.08)

71)03.08>LONG 3137-SELL 3116 = -21 (04.08)

72)04.08>SHOT 3116-BUY 3050 = +66 (05.08)

73)05.08>LONG 3050-SELL 3033 = -17 (08.08)

74)08.08>SHOT 3033-BUY 2959 = +74 (09.08)

75)09.08>LONG 2959-SELL 3004 = +45 (12.08)

76)12.08>SHOT 3004-BUY 3054 = -50 (15.08)

77)15.08>LONG 3054-SELL 3057 * = +3 (15.08) *sell because chart hang from 3pm.

NOVEMBER 2011 contract
78)16.08>SHOT 3019-BUY 3025 = -6 (17.08)

79)17.08>LONG 3025-SELL 3003 = -22 (19.08)

80)19.08>SHOT 3000-BUY 3045 = -45 (23.08)

81)23.08>LONG 3045-SELL 3051 = +6 (24.08)

82)24.08>SHOT 3051-BUY 2978 = +73 (26.08)

83)26.08>LONG 2978-SELL 3037 = +59 (05.09) #NO TRADE because raya holiday!!

84)05.09>SHOT 3037-LONG 3007 = +30 (06.09) #NO TRADE because of Bursa feed problem!!

85)06.09>LONG 3007-SELL 3032 = +25 (08.09)

86)08.09>SHOT 3032-BUY 3055 = -23 (09.09)

87)09.09>LONG 3055-SELL 3021 = -34 (13.09) *

88)13.09>SHOT 3021-LONG 3023 = -2 (14.09)

89)14.09>LONG 3023-SELL 2993 = -30 (14.09)

90)14.09>SELL 2993-BUY 3009 = -16 (14.09)

91)14.09>LONG 3009-SELL 3038 = +29 (19.09)

DECEMBER 2011 contract
92)19.09>LONG 3038-SELL 3028 = -10 (22.09)

93)22.09>SHOT 3028-BUY 2915 = +113 (26.09)

94)26.09>LONG 2915-SELL 2886 = -29 (28.09)

95)28.09>SHOT 2886-BUY 2898 = -12 (29.09)

96)29.09>LONG 2898-SELL 2826 = -72 (04.10)

97)04.10>SHOT 2826-BUY 2775 = +51 (06.10)

98)06.10>LONG 2775-SELL 2783 = +8 (07.10)

99)07.10>SHOT 2783-BUY 2866 = -83 (12.10)

100)12.10>LONG 2866-SELL 2838 = -28 (13.10)

101)13.10>SHOT 2838-BUY 2876 = -38 (14.10)

102)14.10>LONG 2876-SELL 2824 = -52 (18.10)

JANUARY 2012 contract
103)18.10>SHOT 2832-BUY 2874 = -42 (19.10)

104)19.10>LONG 2874-SELL 2986 = +112 (27.10)

105)27.10>SHOT 2986-BUY 2947 = +39 (02.11)

106)02.11>LONG 2947-SELL 2937 = -10 (03.11)

107)03.11>SHOT 2937-BUY 2970 = -33 (03.11)

108)03.11>LONG 2970-SELL 2993 = +23 (04.11)

109)04.11>SHOT 2993-BUY 3018 = -25 (04.11)

110)04.11>LONG 3018-SELL 3030 = +12 (09.11)

111)09.11>SHOT 3030-BUY 3085 = -55 (10.11) ##

112)10.11>LONG 3085-SHOT 3163 = +78 (14.11)

113)14.11>SHOT 3163-LONG 3199 = -36 (15.11)

114)15.11>LONG 3199-SELL 3188 = -11 (15.11)

FEBRUARY 2012 contract
115)15.11>SHOT 3188-BUY 3230 = -42 (16.11)

116)16.11>LONG 3229-SELL 3239 = +10 (17.11)

117)17.11>SHOT 3239-BUY 3261 = -22 (18.11)

118)18.11>LONG 3261-SELL 3216 = -45 (21.11)

119)21.11>SHOT 3216-BUY 3182 = +34 (22.11)

120)22.11>LONG 3182-SELL 3147 = -35 (23.11)

121)23.11>SHOT 3147-BUY 3130 = +17 (24.11)

122)24.11>LONG 3130-SELL 3080 = -50 (25.11)

123)25.11>SHOT 3080-BUY 3053 = +27 (01.12)

124)01.12>LONG 3053-SELL ?? =


TOTAL POINTS = From 1st Jan 2011>> +1273 points