FKLI & CPO

* New FKLI & CPO entry....

FKLI

*New LONG entry for FKLI September 2009

FKLI (August 2009)

>> $51,147 ($41,357, after wdraw 30K)

1)31.07>LONG 4@1170-SELL 4@1172 = +8 (31.07)> +320= 51,467

2)03.08>SHOT 4@1171-BUY 4@1171 = -0 (03.08)> -80= 51,387

3)03.08>LONG 4@1171-SELL 4@1173 = +8 (04.08)> +320= 51,707

4)05.08>LONG 4@1177-SELL 4@1173 = -16 (05.08)> -880= 50,827

5)06.08>LONG 4@1178-SELL 4@1180 = +8 (07.08)> +320= 51,147
>>> 1st week August profit = -$0

6)07.08>SHOT 4@1178-BUY 4@1187 = -36 (10.08)> -1880= 49,267

7)10.08>LONG 4@1189-SELL 4@1185 = -16 (10.08)> -880= 48,387

8)10.08>SHOT 4@1181-BUY 4@1184 = -12 (11.08)> -680= 47,707

9)11.08>LONG 4@1187-SELL 4@1177 = -40 (12.08)> -2080= 45,627

10)12.08>LONG 3@1181-SELL 3@1177 = -12 (12.08)> -660= 44,967

11)12.08>SHOT 3@1177-BUY 3@1182.5 = -16.5 (13.08)> -885= 44,082

12)13.08>SHOT 3@1181-BUY 3@1183 = -6 (13.08)> -372= 43,710
>>> 2nd week August profit = -$7,437

AUGUST :- fkli profit/loss = -130.5 pts, -$7,437/-14.5% ($43,710:+5.7%)

FKLI (July 2009)

>> $42,907 ($41,357, after wdraw 30K)

1)01.07>LONG 2@1074-SELL 2@1079 = +10 (02.07)> +460= 43,367

2)02.07>SHOT 2@1079-BUY 2@1067 = +24 (03.07)> +1160= 44,527
>>> 1st week July profit = +$1,620

3)03.07>LONG 2@1067-SELL 2@1068.5 = +3 (06.07)> +110= 44,637

4)06.07>SHOT 2@1067-BUY 2@1065 = +4 (07.07)> +160= 44,797

5)08.07>SHOT 2@1054-BUY 2@1057 = -6 (08.07)> -340= 44,457

6)09.07>LONG 2@1061-SELL 2@1058 = -6 (09.07)> -340= 44,117

7)10.07>LONG 2@1064-SELL 2@1061 = -6 (10.07)> -340= 43,777
>>> 2nd week July loss = -$750

8)13.07>SHOT 2@1062-BUY 2@1069 = -14 (14.07)> -740= 43,037

9)14.07>SHOT 2@1065-BUY 2@1070 = -10 (14.07)> -540= 42,497

10)15.07>LONG 2@1085-SELL 2@1113 = +56 (16.07)> +2760= 45,257

11)16.07>SHOT 2@1113-BUY 2@1119 = -12 (17.07)> -640= 44,617
>>> 3rd week July profit = +$840

12)17.07>LONG 2@1119-SELL 2@1145 = +52 (21.07)> +2560= 47,177

13)21.07>SHOT 2@1145-BUY 2@1136 = +18 (22.07)> +860= 48,037

14)22.07>LONG 2@1136-SELL 2@1154 = +36 (22.07)> +1760= 49,797

15)23.07>LONG 3@1152-SELL 3@1154 = +6 (23.07)> +240= 50,037
>>> 4th week July profit = +$5,420

16)24.07>SHOT 3@1162-BUY 3@1162 = -0 (27.07)> -60= 49,977

17)27.07>SHOT 3@1157-BUY 3@1157 = -0 (28.07)> -60= 49,917

18)28.07>LONG 3@1157-SELL 3@1171 = +42 (29.07)> +2040= 51,957

19)30.07>LONG 3@1169-SELL 3@1164 = -15 (30.07)> -810= 51,147
>>> 5th week July profit/loss = +$1,110

JULY :- fkli profit/loss = +182 pts, +$8,240/+19.2% ($51,147:+23.7%)

FKLI (Jun 2009)

>> $40,387 ($41,357, after wdraw 30K)

1)29.05, Jun>LONG 2@1043-SELL 2@1057 = +28 (01.06)> +1360= 41,747

2)01.06>SHOT 1057-BUY 1066 = -9 (01.06) *holiday

3)02.06>SHOT 1071-BUY 1068 = +3 (03.06) *holiday

4)03.06>SHOT 1064-BUY 1057 = +7 (04.06) *holiday

5)04.06>LONG 1057-SELL 1053 = -4 (04.06) *holiday

6)04.06>LONG 1061-SELL 1070 = +9 (05.06) *holiday

7)05.06>LONG 1077-SELL 1077 = -0 (08.06) *holiday
>>> 1st week Jun profit = +$1,360

8)08.06>SHOT 2@1069-BUY 2@1074 = -10 (10.06)> -540= 41,207

9)10.06>LONG 2@1074-SELL 2@1084 = +20 (11.06)> +960= 42,167

10)11.06>SHOT 2@1084-BUY 2@1089 = -10 (11.06)> -540= 41,627

11)11.06>LONG 2@1089-SELL 2@1085 = -8 (12.06)> -440= 41,187
>>> 2nd week Jun loss = -$560

12)12.06>LONG 2@1091-SELL 2@1085 = -12 (15.06)> -640= 40,547

13)16.06>LONG 2@1084-SELL 2@1078 = -12 (16.06)> -640= 39,907

14)16.06>SHOT 2@1078-BUYstop2@1077 = +2 (17.06)> +60= 39,967

15)17.06>LONG 2@1078-SELL 2@1071 = -14 (17.06)> -740= 39,227

16)18.06>SHOT 2@1069-BUY 2@1073 = -8 (18.06)> -440= 38,787

17)18.06>LONG 2@1073-SELL 2@1068 = -10 (18.06)> -540= 38,247

18)18.06>SHOT 2@1060-BUY 2@1063 = -6 (19.06)> -340= 37,907
>>> 3rd week Jun loss = -$3,280

19)19.06>LONG 2@1063-SELL 2@1060 = -6 (22.06)> -340= 37,567

20)22.06>SHOT 2@1060-BUY 2@1038 = +44 (23.06)> +2160= 39,727

21)24.06>LONG 2@1047-SELL 2@1078 = +62 (26.06)> +3060= 42,787

22)26.06>SHOT 2@1078-BUY 2@1079 = -2 (26.06)> -140= 42,647

23)26.06>LONG 2@1079-SELL 2@1082 = +6 (30.06)> +260= 42,907
>>> 4th week Jun profit = +$5,000

JUN :- fkli profit/loss = +64 pts, +$2,520/+6.2% ($42,907:+3.7%)

AIG - Shares & Call Options Buy ...

AIG

1)31.03>Shares, BUY 1000@$0.99-SELLstop 1000@1.59 = +0.60 (02.06)

2)31.03>Call Ops May 09(STK $2), BUY 400@$0.14-SELL 400@$0.15 = +$4 (hahaha TIMEDECAY problem, small losses)

3)31.03>Call Ops May 09(STK $3), BUY 1000@$0.07-SELL 1000@$0.03 = -$40 (TIMEDECAY problem also, another losses)

4)31.03>Call Ops Aug 09(STK $3), BUY 200@0.15-SELL 200@0.19 = +$16

FKLI (May 2009)

>> $45,297 ($41,357, after wdraw 30K)

1)29.04>FKLI May, LONG 2@974-SELL 2@984 = +20 (30.04)> +960= 46,257

2)30.04>FKLI May, LONG 2@994-SELL 2@998 = +8 (04.05)> +360= 46,617

3)04.05>FKLI, LONG 2@1012-SELL 2@1017 = +10 (05.05)> +460= 47,077

4)06.05>FKLI, SHOT 2@1004-BUY 2@1009 = -10 (06.05)> -540= 46,537

5)06.05>FKLI, LONG 2@1012-SELL 2@1001.5 = -21 (06.05)> -1090= 45,447

6)06.05>FKLI, LONG 2@1012-SELL 2@1030 = +36 (07.05)> +1760= 47,207

7)07.05>FKLI, LONG 2@1038-SELL 2@1023 = -30 (08.05)> -1540= 45,667

8)08.05>FKLI, SHOT 2@1023-BUY 2@1028 = -10 (08.05)> -540= 45,127
>>> 1st week may loss = -$170

9)11.05>FKLI, SHOT 2@1027-BUY 2@1033 = -12 (11.05)> -640= 44,487

10)11.05>FKLI, LONG 2@1036-SELL 2@1023 = -26 (11.05)> -1340= 43,147

11)11.05>FKLI, SHOT 2@1017-BUY 2@1021 = -8 (12.05)> -440= 42,707

12)12.05>FKLI, LONG 2@1021-SELL 2@1016 = -10 (12.05)> -540= 42,167

13)13.05>FKLI, SHOT 2@1019-BUY 2@1026 = -14 (13.02)> -740= 41,427

14)14.05>FKLI, SHOT 2@1009-BUY 2@1012 = -6 (15.05)> -340= 41,087

15)15.05>FKLI, LONG 2@1012-SELL 2@1007 = -10 (15.05)> -540= 40,547
>>> 2nd week may loss = -$4,580

16)18.05>FKLI, SHOT 2@1001-BUY 2@1002 = -2 (18.05)> -140= 40,407

17)19.05>FKLI, SHOT 2@1014-BUY 2@1019 = -10 (19.05)> -540= 39,867

18)20.05>FKLI, LONG 2@1028-SELL 2@1035 = +14 (21.05)> +660= 40,527

19)21.05>FKLI, SHOT 2@1032-BUY 2@1029 = +6 (22.05)> +260= 40,787
>>> 3rd week may profit = +$240

20)22.05>FKLI, LONG 2@1029-SELL 2@1046 = +34 (25.05)> +1660= 42,447

21)25.05>FKLI, SHOT 2@1046-BUY 2@1055 = -18 (25.05)> -940= 41,507

22)25.05>FKLI, LONG 2@1055-SELL 2@1045 = -20 (26.05)> -1040= 40,467

23)26.05>FKLI, SHOT 2@1045-BUY 2@1053 = -16 (27.05)> -840= 39,627

24)27.05>FKLI, SHOT 2@1050-BUY 2@1042 = +16 (29.05)> +760= 40,387
>>> 4th week may profit/loss = -$400

MAY :- fkli & cpo profit/loss = -79 pts, -$4,910/-10.8% ($40,387:-2.3%)

AIG chart- Confirm Symm.Triangle Breakout

*hmmmmmmmmm, see the AIG chart above for yourself, clearcut & confirm breakout, as i'm posting the chart here AIG price quotes at $1.85 around 10.15pm.... muahahahaha....

AIG Chart...

*ascending triangle for AIG... hmmmm upside BREAKOUT potential?? hahaha, BTW Dow already broken 100ema on 29 April 2009 y'day.. we'll see how Dow going to perform...

FKLI & CPO (April 2009)

>> $68,634

1)31.03>FKLI LONG 2@871-SELL 2@907 = +72 (03.04)> +3560= 72,194

2)31.03>CPO Jun, LONG 1@1999-SELL 1@2019 = +20 (01.04)> +480= 72,674

3)01.04>CPO Jun, LONG 1@2020-SELL 1@2141 = +121 (03.04)> +3005= 75,679

4)01.04>FKLI LONG 2@876-SELL 2@907 = +62 (03.04)> +3060= 78,739

5)03.04>FKLI SHOT 4@907-BUY 4@912 = -20 (03.04)> -1096= 77,643
>>> 1st week april profit = +$9,009

6)06.04>FKLI LONG 4@914-SELL 4@918.5 = +18 (06.04)> +820= 78,463

7)06.04>CPO Jun, LONG 1@2190-SELL 1@2147 = -43 (06.04)> -1095= 77,368

8)06.04>FKLI LONG 4@919-SELL 4@916 = -12 (07.04)> -680= 76,688

9)07.04>FKLI SHOT 4@916-BUY 4@923 = -28 (07.04)> -1480= 75,208

10)08.04>FKLI LONG 4@911-SELL 4@906.5 = -18 (08.04)> -980= 74,228

11)08.04>FKLI SHOT 4@906.5-BUY 4@916.5 = -40 (09.04)> -2096= 72,132

12)09.04>FKLI LONG 10@916-SELL 10@918.5 = +25 (09.04)> +1050= 73,182

13)09.04>FKLI LONG 2@916-SELL 2@935 = +38 (10.04)> +1860= 75,042

14)09.04>FKLI LONG 2@921.5-SELL 2@935 = +27 (10.04)> +1310= 76,352
>>> 2nd week april loss = -$1,331

15)13.04>FKLI SHOT 1@941-BUY 1@948 = -7 (13.04)> -370= 75,982

16)13.04>FKLI SHOT 3@940.5-BUY 3@948 = -22.5 (13.04)> -1185= 74,797

17)13.04>FKLI LONG 1@950-SELL 1@938 = -12 (14.04)> -620= 74,177
13.04>FKLI LONG 3@950-SELL 3@953 = +9 (15.04)> +390= 74,567

18)14.04>FKLI LONG 1@945-SELL 1@953 = +8 (15.04)> +380= 74,947

19)15.04>FKLI LONG 4@956-SELL 4@950 = -24 (15.04)> -1280= 73,667

20)15.04>FKLI SHOT 2@949-BUY 2@957 = -16 (15.04)> -840= 72,827

21)15.04>FKLI LONG 4@958.5-SELL 4@966.5 = +32 (16.04)> +1520= 74,347

22)16.04>FKLI SHOT 4@957-BUY 4@962 = -20 (17.04)> -1080= 73,267

23)17.04>FKLI LONG 10@962-SELL 10@964.5 = +25 (17.04)> +1050= 74,317

24)17.04>FKLI LONG 4@962-SELL 4@955 = -28 (17.04)> -1480= 72,837
>>> 3rd week april loss = -$3,515

25)20.04>FKLI SHOT 4@954-BUY 4@961 = -28 (20.04)> -1480 = 71,357 -wdraw 30,000 (20.04) = 41,357

26)21.04>FKLI LONG 2@957-SELL 2@972 = +30 (22.04)> +1460= 42,817

27)22.04>FKLI LONG 1@975-SELL 1@972 = -3 (22.04)> -170= 42,647

28)23.04>FKLI LONG 2@974-SELL 2@869 = -10 (23.04)> -540= 42,107

29)23.04>FKLI LONG 5@978-SELL 5@980.5 = +12.5 (23.04)> +525= 42,632

30)23.04>FKLI LONG 2@978-SELL 2@983 = +10 (24.04)> +460= 43,093

31)24.04>FKLI SHOT 1@983-BUY 1@986 = -3 (24.04)> -170= 42,922 ) itchy hand trade,hehe

32)24.04>FKLI LONG 5@990-SELL 5@992.5 = +12.5 (24.04)> +525= 43,447

33)24.04>FKLI LONG 2@990-SELL 2@998 = +16 (27.04)> +760= 44,207

34)27.04>FKLI SHOT 2@998-BUY 2@988 = +20 (28.04)> +960= 45,167

35)28.04>FKLI LONG 2@988-SELL 2@984 = -8 (28.04)> -440= 44,727

36)28.04>FKLI SHOT 2@984-BUY 2@973 = +22 (29.04)> +1060= 45,787

37)29.04>FKLI SHOT 2@968.5-BUY 2@973 = -9 (29.04)> -490= 45,297
>>> 4th week april profit = +$2,460

APRIL :- fkli & cpo profit/loss = +$6,623/+16% ($45,297:+10%) *as 20.04.2009 Capital increase to 71,357:+49% (profit= +23,357)

* scalping intraday 8T (8W) = +20 points

FKLI & CPO (Mac 2009)

>> $65,179

1)27.02>FKLI SHOT 1@890-BUY 1@864 = +26 (03.03)> +1280= 66,459

2)02.03>FKLI SHOT 1@865-BUY 1@864 = +1 (03.03)> +30= 66,489

3)02.03>CPO May, SHOT 1@1884-BUY 1@1854 = +30 (03.03)> +720= 67,209

4)03.03>FKLI SHOT 1@860-BUY 1@864 = -4 (03.03)> -220= 66,989

5)04.03>FKLI SHOT 2@859-BUY 2@865 = -12 (04.03)> -640= 66,349

6)04.03>FKLI LONG 2@867-SELL 2@869 = +4 (05.03)> +160= 66,509
>>> 1st week mac profit = +$1,330

7)05.03>FKLI SHOT 3@867.5-BUY 3@861 = +19.5 (10.03)> +915= 67,424

8)11.03>FKLI LONG 1@857.5-SELL 1@855 = -2.5 (11.03)> -145= 67,279

9)12.03>FKLI SHOT 3@844-BUY 3@843.5 = +1.5 (12.03)> +15= 67,294

10)12.03>FKLI SHOT 3@840-BUY 3@839 = +3 (12.03)> +90= 67,384

11)13.03>CPO May, LONG 1@1953-SELL 1@1943 = -10 (13.03)> -270= 67,114

12)13.03>FKLI LONG 3@843-SELL 3@840 = -9 (13.03)> -510= 66,604
>>> 2nd week mac profit = +$95

13)16.03>FKLI LONG 3@845-SELL 3@840.5 = -13.5 (16.03)> -735= 65,869 *a bit to early long!!

14)16.03>FKLI SHOT 3@840.5-BUY 3@846.5 = -18 (17.03)> -960= 64,909

15)17.03>FKLI LONG 3@846.5-SELL 3@843.5 = -9 (17.03)> -510= 64,399

16)17.03>FKLI LONG 3@843-SELL 3@852 = +27 (19.03)> +1290= 65,689

17)18.03>CPO Jun, LONG 1@1941-SELL 1@1918 = -23 (18.03)> -595= 65,094

18)20.03>FKLI SHOT 3@853-BUY 3@855 = -6 (20.03)> -360= 64,734

19)20.03>FKLI LONG 7@856-SELL 858.5 = +17.5 (20.03)> +735= 65,469
>>> 3rd week mac loss = -$1,135

20)20.03>FKLI LONG 3@856-SELL 3@881 = +75 (24.03)> +3690= 69,159

21)24.03>CPO Jun, SHOT 1@2001-BUY 1@1991 = +10 (24.03)> +230= 69,389

22)25.03>FKLI SHOT 2@873.5-BUY 2@880 = -13 (25.03)> -690= 68,699

23)25.03>FKLI SHOT 1@875-BUY 1@880 = -5 (25.03)> -270= 68,429

24)25.03>FKLI LONG 1@879-SELL 1@884.5 = +5.5 (27.03)> +255= 68,684

25)25.03>FKLI LONG 2@875-SELL 2@884.5 = +19 (27.03)> +910= 69,594

26)25.03>CPO Jun, LONG 1@1980-SELL 1972 = -8 (25.03)> -220= 69,374

27)27.03>CPO Jun, LONG 1@2010-SELL 1@2001 = -9 (27.03)> -245= 69,129

28)27.03>CPO Jun, SHOT 1@2001-BUY 1@2020 = -19 (27.03)> -495= 68,634

29)30.03>FKLI SHOT 881-BUY 871 = +10 (31.03) *Shot entry that i missed.. knn
>>> 4th week mac profit = +$3,165

MAC :- fkli & cpo profit/loss = +$3,455/+5.3% ($68,634:+42.9%)

* scalping intraday 9T (8W-1L) = +19 points

Composite Index "is it a BEARWEDGE???"

*no comment, refer back to the TITLE... hahaha, antiie/unker prepare for the worst now... BUY LOW BUY LOW, dont miss the chance.. its one time opportunity to face the worse since 1929.... wakakaka, BUY LOW BUY LOW... BURSA JUMBO MEGA SALES COMING SOOOOOONNNNN??

FKLI & CPO (February 2009)

>> $72,074

1)30.01>FKLI LONG 3@877-SELL 3@868 = -27 (03.02)> -1410= 70,664

2)03.02>FKLI SHOT 6@868-BUY 6@875 = -42 (04.02)> -2220= 68,444

3)04.02>FKLI LONG 4@878-SELL 4@869 = -36 (05.02)> -1880= 66,564
>>> 1st week february loss = -$5,510

4)05.02>FKLI LONG 3@875-SELL 3@894 = +57 (10.02)> +2790= 69,354

5)10.02>CPO April, LONG 1@1944-SELL 1@1930 = -14 (11.02)> -370= 68,984

6)12.02>FKLI SHOT 4@884.5-BUY 4@889 = -18 (13.02)> -980= 68,004

7)12.02>CPO April, SHOT 1@1931-BUY 1@1940 = -9 (13.02)> -245= 67,759

8)13.02>CPO April, LONG 1@1958-SELL 1@1968 = +10 (13.02)> +230= 67,989

9)13.02>CPO April, LONG 1@1988-SELL 1@1995 = +7 (13.02)> +155= 68,144
>>> 2nd week february profit = +$1,580

11)16.02>FKLI LONG 3@914-SELL 3@905 = -27 (16.02)> -1410= 66,734

#)17.02>FKLI SHOT 903-BUY 890 = +13 (18.02)> +630 *Miss Trade

12)18.02>FKLI LONG 3@892-SELL 3@886 = -18 (20.02)> -960= 65,774

10)13.02>FKLI LONG 1@902-SELL 1@881 = -21 (20.02)> -1070= 64,704
>>> 3rd week february loss = -$3,440

11)20.02>FKLI SHOT 2@883-BUY 2@880 = +6 (23.02)> +260= 64,964

12)20.02>FKLI SHOT 1@881-BUY 1@880 = +1 (23.02)> +30= 64,994

13)24.02>FKLI SHOT 1@881-BUY 1@885 = -4 (24.02)> -220= 64,774

14)24.02>FKLI LONG 3@885-SELL 3@893 = +24 (26.02)> +1140= 65,914

15)26.02>FKLI SHOT 3@893-BUY 3@897.5 = -13.5 (26.02)> -735= 65,179
>>> 4th week february profit/loss = +$475

FEBRUARY:- fkli & cpo profit/loss = -$6,955/-9.6% ($65,179:+35.7%)

In the long run ... Commentary: This might be first genuine bear market in three decades

ANNANDALE, Va. (MarketWatch) -- Lots of attention was paid, going into Monday's trading session, to the Standard & Poor's 500 Index.

Would it join the Dow Jones Industrial Average in breaking to new bear-market lows, lower than the Nov. 20 level that up until recently had marked the low point of the bear market that began in October 2007?

As fate would have it, of course, it was not even close. By the close of trading, the S&P 500 was more than nine points below its Nov. 20 closing low.

That's depressing enough news, of course.

But by focusing on whether the Nov. 20 lows would be broken, investors may have overlooked something else that happened Monday that is even more momentous from a longer-term point of view: The Dow broke below its closing low of the 2000-02 bear market; the S&P 500 had achieved that dubious feat last Friday.

Technicians will no doubt endlessly debate the meaning of this in coming days. But one intriguing consequence of the 2002 lows' being broken is that the stock market's decline between 2000 and 2002 begins to appear less and less as a bear market and more as a mere correction within a great bull market that began in the early 1980s.

According to this retelling, that bull market lasted 25 years and did not finally end until October 2007.

What difference does it make how we retell the story of what has passed? In one sense, of course, it makes no difference. After all, regardless of what you call it, the stock market fell some 40% between 2000 and 2002.

But, in another sense, this retelling of history carries great significance, since it reveals a lot about the bear market we're suffering through right now. According to some technical analysts, prominently including Richard Russell, editor of Dow Theory Letters, a major bear market can be expected to obliterate between one-half and two-thirds of the previous advance.

I'll do the math for you: We've already erased around half of the bull market that began in 1982. A two-thirds retrenchment would take the Dow down to around the 5,200 mark.

By the way, this sobering retelling of the stock market's history over the last three decades isn't something that technicians are cooking up only now, after the stock market has already declined by 50%.

Russell outlined just such a possibility nearly a year ago, in April 2008, when the Dow was trading at relatively lofty levels around 12,600. In entertaining the notion that the 2000-02 bear market was actually a mere correction within an ongoing bull market, Russell wrote: "Somewhere ahead we're finally going to enter a true primary bear market, maybe one of the greatest and most tragic in history. That future bear market will end with something we haven't seen since the 1980 to 1982 period, and I'm talking about great values in stocks. And when I say great values I'm talking about blue-chip stocks selling in single-digit price/earning ratios while at the same time providing dividend yields of 6-7-8%, the kind of yields we last saw at the lows of the early 1980s."

The bottom line? On this retelling, we should have expected the bear market that follows an unprecedented bull market would be just as momentous.

In other words, we should not have been surprised.

Mark Hulbert is the founder of Hulbert Financial Digest in Annandale, Va. He has been tracking the advice of more than 160 financial newsletters since 1980.
*Courtesy of MarketWatch

An historical walk down Wall Street, Commentary: Analogy with the 1930s doesn't have to spell doom

ANNANDALE, Va. (MarketWatch) -- It's become fashionable in recent months to look to the 1930s for an analogy to what we're suffering through today.

But how many of the commentators who so blithely throw the comparison around have actually analyzed what it would really mean to play out that decade's script?

I think you know the answer.

So, for this column, I decided to take that analogy seriously. And, not surprisingly, I found that it presents a very depressing portrait of what might lie ahead. If we think we've had it bad so far -- and we have -- we haven't seen anything yet.

Believe it or not, however, I also found some good news.

That, at least, is the conclusion to emerge from a recent interview with Jeremy Siegel, the Wharton finance professor and author of the classic investment book, "Stocks for the Long Run."

To locate the date during the 1930s that is most analogous to today, Siegel looked for the point at which the stock market after 1929 had -- as is the case today -- declined by half. He relied on a stock-market benchmark that he has calculated which takes dividends into account and also adjusts for inflation.

This point of 50% decline came very early in the Great Depression, according to Siegel -- at the end of 1930, in fact. As in the current bear market, that initial point of 50% decline came just 16 months after the August 1929 stock-market top.

But the bear market had only barely begun at that point. Over just the next five months, according to Siegel, on an inflation-adjusted total return basis, the stock market fell an additional 60%.

You read that right: That's a 60% drop on top of a 50% drop -- or should I say "on bottom of ..."?

If the stock market today were to suffer a further decline of similar magnitude, the Dow Jones Industrial Average would be trading below the 3,000 level by the end of July.

To this extent, therefore, we had better hope that the analogy with the 1930s doesn't hold.

The news isn't all bad, however. That's because, according to Siegel, the stock market quickly recovered from its 60% plunge in early 1931 -- within two years, in fact. By June 1933, the market was actually ahead of where it had stood at the end of 1930.

Furthermore, over the five years beginning at the end of 1930, the stock market, on an inflation-adjusted total-return basis, produced a 7% annualized return -- notwithstanding the 60% drop in the first five months of that five-year period.

In other words, even if you had been so unlucky as to buy stocks right before a six-month decline of 60%, you would have been whole again within just two years and would have earned a 7% real return over the next five years.

Few investors would object to that outcome today, of course. A 7% real return over the next five years sounds awfully attractive, in fact. And, yet, assuming the analogy with the 1930s holds up, that is what will happen between now and February 2014.

Of course, there's no way of knowing whether we're really playing out a 1930s script. And even if we are so unlucky as to endure a 60% drop over the next five months, there are no guarantees that the market will recover as quickly as it did following the first half of 1931.

Nevertheless, insofar as we choose to compare the current bear market and the Great Depression, we owe it to ourselves to carefully analyze what that analogy holds. And, as awful as that analogy is, it also contains some welcome and surprising silver linings.

Mark Hulbert is the founder of Hulbert Financial Digest in Annandale, Va. He has been tracking the advice of more than 160 financial newsletters since 1980.
*Courtesy of MarketWatch

DowJones 60m.chart (24.02.2009)

*DJ rebound - its about time because of the BULLDIV from RSI & Chart and Bernanke mention all this will end by year end (he can see the future, good good) hahaha, but Bursa move ahead of the rest of the world yesterday. Now trick question, DJ follow Bursa ka?? hehe

AIG - Chart & Put

*congrats to all my friends that making good USD... very good PUT decision to all you guys make last October/November. Regret i tada follow you guys....

PUT OPTIONS

Expire at close Fri, May 15, 2009

Strike		Last	Chg	Bid	Ask	Vol	Open Int
3.00		2.50	0.00	2.54	2.68	223	2,980
4.00		3.50	0.00	3.50	3.70	10	1,234
5.00		4.50	0.00	4.50	4.70	10	1,380
6.00		4.40	0.00	5.50	5.70	5	174
7.00		5.40	0.00	6.50	6.70	10	1
8.00		6.56	0.00	7.50	7.70	12	70
10.00		8.60	0.00	9.50	9.70	36	47
15.00		13.55	0.00	14.50	14.70	5	12

Stocks jump after Bernanke says recession may end

Stocks jump after Bernanke tells Congress recession might end this year

NEW YORK (AP) -- Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke has given Wall Street a double dose of reassurance. Bernanke has told Congress the recession might end this year, and that regulators aren't planning to nationalize banks. The news alleviated some of investors' worries about the economy and the banking system, and lifted the Dow Jones industrial average and Standard & Poor's 500 index off their lowest levels since 1997.

AP - Federal Reserve Board Chairman Ben Bernanke testifies on Capitol Hill in Washington, Tuesday, Feb. 24, 2009, before the ...">

AP - Federal Reserve Board Chairman Ben Bernanke testifies on Capitol Hill in Washington, Tuesday, Feb. 24, 2009, before the ...

Analysts said the market was also hoping that President Barack Obama, who speaks to the nation Tuesday night, will offer details about his plans to help stabilize the financial system.

The Dow is up 236 points at 7,350, while the S&P 500 index is up 29 at 773. The Nasdaq composite index is up 54 at 1,441.

Advancing issues are ahead of losers by 5 to 1 on the New York Stock Exchange. Volume came to 1.84 billion shares.

*Courtesy of Yahoo! Finance

>> Now we wait and see whether Bernanke prediction going to happen by year end or not. Hehehehe, now looks like prediction between Greenspan vs Bernanke ???

US Stocks Close Lower On Broad Losses; DJIA Down 251

NEW YORK (MarketWatch) -- U.S. stocks plunged to their lowest levels in nearly 12 years as risk aversion and the weight of a global recession sparked a broad-based decline led by industrial heavyweights such as General Electric and Alcoa.

After a bank-led 485-point slide last week sent the Dow to new bear market lows, a more broad selloff Monday pushed the index even lower Monday. Setting off the declines was a drop of 48 cents, or 7.6%, to 5.81, for Alcoa, and 53 cents, or 5.7%, to 8.85, for General Electric.

For GE, traders continue to view the industrial conglomerate as basically a financial firm, with a Deutsche Bank analyst saying there's a growing risk that GE will have to cut its dividend to support its GE Capital unit. For banks, and all of the companies that rely on the credit markets to sustain growth, a continued fear about what still remains on corporate balance sheets reigns.

"Where there has been smoke so far, there has eventually been fire every time," said David Klaskin, chief investment officer for Oak Ridge Investments in Chicago.

Overall, the Dow closed down 250.89 points, or 3.41%, to 7114.78, marking its lowest closing point since May 7, 1997. In 10 sessions, the Dow has lost more than 14% and is down 19% for the year.

Former Dow-component American International Group also weighed on the broad indexes, with CNBC reporting that AIG is in talks with the U.S. government about securing more funds to be able to continue operating after March 2. Traders say any move to help the giant insurer could delay government officials from more pressing issues within the economy and banking system.

AIG, now a small-cap, closed down a penny, or 1.9%, at 53 cents.

The Standard & Poor's 500 slid 26.72, or 3.47%, to 743.33, marking an 11-year closing low and passing through its closing low of 752.44 made in November. Though the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite declined more than the other broad indices, off 53.51, or 3.71%, to 1387.72, it remains up more than 5% from its November closing lows.

It was notable the financial sector didn't take part in the broad market declines as talk of an expanded U.S. government stake in Citigroup prompted some gains for banks. Citigroup shares rose 19 cents, or 9.7%, to 2.14. Bank of America, which has also been subject to speculation about a possible government takeover, gained 12 cents, or 3.2%, to 3.91.

But traders note a heavy reliance on Washington isn't healthy for banking stocks long-term. And the broad stock declines have fed into the same level of concern from investors in late 2008, when money managers said many of their clients were increasingly asking for the safest route possible.

"People are totally risk averse to anything right now. They're backing off any asset allocation and just getting out as it's going to take a while before any stimulus money moves in," said Thomas Nyheim, a portfolio manager with Christiana Bank & Trust.

Elsewhere among banking stocks, Royal Bank of Scotland gained 29 cents, or 5.2%, to 5.83, after reports that it would follow in Citigroup's footsteps with a breakup in which it would hive off assets it plans to sell.

However, UBS and other Swiss banks dropped on continued worries about their investment-banking operations. UBS closed down 1.32, or 14%, at 8.39.

Shares of managed-care providers dropped sharply Monday after the Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services said Friday private Medicare plans would see a modest 0.5% increase in the 2010 fiscal year under tentative projections, a growth rate that would come in well below some analysts' expectations. Shares of UnitedHealth Group declined 4.16, or 15%, to 23.82 and Humana fell 9.71, or 24%, to 30.83.

Ford Motor gained 15 cents, or 9.5%, to 1.73 as the car maker reached a tentative deal over unionized retiree health benefits Monday, increasing the chances that General Motors and Chrysler can secure their own concessions. GM closed unchanged at 1.77.

On the earnings front, Campbell Soup reported a 15% decline in fiscal second-quarter net income on falling volume and the stronger dollar. The soup maker closed down 82 cents, or 2.8%, at 28.63.

Garmin gained 1.11, or 7.3%, to 16.28 on Nasdaq. The maker of global positioning systems' fiscal fourth-quarter net income dropped 49% on falling sales and margins.

Fitch Ratings further downgraded the credit ratings of Mexican cement maker Cemex SAB, off 36 cents, or 6%, to 5.64, citing concerns about the company's level of debt.

*Courtesy of MarketWatch

DowJones 60m.chart (23.02.2009)

*as I mention last saturday, DJ going SOUTH because of the last 2 Friday inverted hammer & last night DJ drops nearer to 7,000 level. This level should be a short term support level for DJ.