FKLI 2008 Performance

)03.06>Jun, SHOT 1255-BUY 1187 = +68 (30.6)

2)01.07>Jul, SHOT 1172-BUY 1122 = +50 (10.07)

3)18.07>Jul, SHOT 1096-BUY 1123 = -27 (23.07)

4)28.07>Jul, LONG 1149-SELL 1162.5 = +13.5 (31.07)

5)12.08>Aug, SHOT 1106-BUY 1081 = +25 (29.08)

6)11.09>Sep, SHOT 1035-BUY 1016 = +19 (19.09)

7)29.09>Sep, LONG 1011-SELL 1017.5 = +6.5 (30.09)

8)03.10>Oct, SHOT 1011-BUY 866.5 = +144.5 (31.10)

9)31.10>Nov, SHOT 849-BUY 884 = -35 (03.11)

10)10.11>Nov, LONG 909-SELL 852 = -57 (20.11) *o.shoot 862 stop,bcoz open gap down to 852.

11)20.11>Nov, SHOT 852-BUY 866.5 = -14.5 (28.11)

12)28.11>Dec, SHOT 872.5-BUY 866 = +6.5 (17.12)

13)17.12>Dec, LONG 866-SELL 868 = +2 (23.12) >> 2008= +201.5

CPO 2010 Performance

APRIL 2010 contract
40)21.01>SHOT 2430-BUY 2486 = -56 (03.02)

41)03.02>LONG 2486-SELL 2562 = +76 (10.02)

MAY 2010 contract
42)10.02>LONG 2555-SELL 2588 = +33 (25.02)

43)25.02>SHOT 2588-BUY 2629 = -41 (03.03)

44)03.03>LONG 2629-SELL 2657 = +28 (11.03)

45)11.03>SHOT 2657-BUY 2590 = +67 (15.03)

JUNE 2010 contract
46)15.03>SHOT 2575-BUY 2564 = +11 (02.04)

47)02.04>LONG 2564-SELL 2523 = -41 (06.04)

48)06.04>SHOT 2523-BUY 2530 = -7 (23.04)

JULY 2010 contract
49)23.04>LONG 2522-SELL 2529 = +7 (04.05)

50)04.05>SHOT 2529-BUY 2492 = +37 (20.05)

AUGUST 2010 contract
51)20.05>LONG 2475-SELL 2451 = -24 (27.05)

52)27.05>SHOT 2451-BUY 2473 = -22 (02.06)

53)02.06>LONG 2473-SELL 2436 = -37 (08.06)

54)08.06>SHOT 2436-BUY 2443 = -7 (21.06)

SEPTEMBER 2010 contract
55)21.06>LONG 2421-SELL 2382 = -39 (22.06)

56)22.06>SHOT 2382-BUY 2406 = -24 (28.06)

57)28.06>LONG 2406-SELL 2373 = -33 (29.06)

58)29.06>SHOT 2373-BUY 2321 = +52 (12.07)

59)12.07>LONG 2321-SELL 2468 = +147 (20.07)

OCTOBER 2010 contract
60)20.07>LONG 2445-SELL 2673 = +228 (17.08)

NOVEMBER 2010 contract
61)17.08>SHOT 2652-BUY 2557 = +95 (27.08)

62)27.08>LONG 2557-SELL 2624 = +67 (15.09)

63)15.08>SHOT 2624-BUY 2736 = -112 (27.09)

DECEMBER 2010 contract
64)27.09>LONG 2736-SELL 3054 = +318 (26.10)

JANUARY 2011 contract
65)26.10>LONG 3052-SELL 3362 = +310 (16.11)

FEBRUARY 2011 contract

66)16.11>LONG 3357-SELL 3288 = -69 (16.11)

67)16.11>SHOT 3288-BUY 3266 = +22 (25.11)

68)25.11>LONG 3266-SELL 3608 = +342 (09.12)

MARCH 2011 contract
69)09.12>LONG 3569-SELL 3587 = +18 (16.12)

70)16.12>SHOT 3587-BUY 3606 = -19 (22.12)

71)22.12>LONG 3606-SELL 3761 = +155 (07.01) >>2010= +1482

CPO 2009 Performance

15)13.01>SHOT 1863-BUY 1806 = +57 (15.01)

Apr 2009 contract
16)15.01>SHOT 1805-BUY 1873 = -68 (22.01)

17)22.01>LONG 1873-SELL 1791 = -82 (28.01)

18)28.01>SHOT 1791-BUY 1816 = -25 (04.02)

MAY 2009 contract
19)13.02>LONG 1970-SELL 1906 = -64 (17.02)

20)06.03>LONG 1931-SELL 1970 = +39 (12.03)

JUN 2009 contract
21)01.04>LONG 2036-SELL 2123 = +87 (07.04)

22)09.04>LONG 2202-SELL 2459 = +257 (15.04)

JULY 2009 contract
23)23.04>LONG 2502-SELL 2663 = +161 (15.05)

AUGUST 2009 contract
24)21.05>SHOT 2512-BUY 2560 = -48 (29.05)

SEPTEMBER 2009 contract
25)15.06>SHOT 2437-BUY 2319 = +118 (25.06)

26)02.07>SHOT 2208-BUY 2059 = +149 (14.07)

OCTOBER 2009 contract
27)20.07>LONG 2165-SELL 2286 = +121 (06.08)

28)10.08>LONG 2367-SELL 2441 = +74 (14.08)

NOVEMBER 2009 contract
29)17.08>LONG 2371-SELL 2274 = -97 (21.08)

30)01.09>SHOT 2312-BUY 2238 = +74 (10.09)

31)14.09>SHOT 2115-BUY 2100 = +15 (15.09)

DECEMBER 2009 contract
32)15.09>SHOT 2090-BUY 2124 = -34 (12.10)

33)12.10>LONG 2124-SELL 2129 = +5 (15.10)

JANUARY 2010 contract
34)19.10>LONG 2200-SELL 2186 = -14 (27.10)

35)04.11>LONG 2252-SELL 2269 = +17 (13.11)

FEBRUARY 2010 contract
36)13.11>LONG 2288-SELL 2459 = +171 (30.11)

37)04.12>LONG 2523-SELL 2525 = +2 (15.12)

MARCH 2010 contract
38)15.12>LONG 2530-SELL 2487 = -43 (23.12)

39)29.12>LONG 2624-SELL 2651 = +27 (07.01) >> 2009= +899

CPO 2008 Performance

August contract
1)22.05>LONG 3625-SELL 3658 = +33 (28.05)

2)04.06>SHOT 3438-BUY 3539 = -101 (05.06)

September contract
3)03.07>LONG 3630-SELL 3558 = -72 (07.07)

October contract
4)17.07>SHOT 3437-BUY 2453 = +984 (15.08)

November contract
5)18.08>SHOT 2440-BUY 2567 = -127 (20.08)

6)09.09>SHOT 2405-BUY 2240 = +165 (15.09)

December contract
7)16.09>SHOT 2171-BUY 2182 = -12 (18.09)

8)29.09>SHOT 2250-BUY 1899 = +351 (14.10)

January 2009 contract
9)20.10>SHOT 1724-BUY 1558 = +166 (30.10)

10)03.11>LONG 1599-SELL 1542 = -57 (12.11)

11)12.11>SHOT 1542-BUY 1455 = +87 (14.11)

February 2009 contract
12)14.11>SHOT 1460-BUY 1467 = -7 (19.11)

13)21.11>SHOT 1399-BUY 1495 = -96 (24.11)

Mac 2009 contract
14)30.12>LONG 1659-SELL 1863 = +204 (13.01) >> 2008= +1518

CPO Trade Update: 7 January 2011

*Officially this is my 1st trade for 2011, i turn SHOT 3761 for March contract.. is this the real SELLING POINT for CPO to jump down.. hmmmm, no idea..

*And i would like to say that for year 2010 i'm up +/- 370% trade per lot (per trade).. crazy crazy.. GT's believe it or not.. BELIEVE IT.. :))

CPO & FKLI 2010 Performance..

CPO
*Assume i start trade CPO RM10,000.. As of end 2010 i'm already up a whopping percentage roughly around +330% from capital just by assuming trading 1 lot per trade whole year.

*For 2009 up about +220% assume start RM10,000 and for 2008 up about +380%.. so for the last 3 years my average winning per year roughly about +310%.

*Dont forget for 2010 i still holding LONG 3606 for March contract and i will calculate it for 2010 performance once i SAR.

FKLI
*For FKLI i'm up roughly about +56% for 2010, up +99% for 2009 and up about 101% for 2008, so its crystal clear CPO is far more SUPERIOR than lovely FKLI.. hehe

My Small Account Monthly Update: December 2010

FKLI Update: Roll to new year Jan 2011

*FKLI roll LONG 1528 for January month..

*CPO still remain the same, holding LONG 3606 for March contract..

Happy New Year 2011..

* I wish to all my die-hard supporters err followers err friends, a Happy & Prosperous New Year 2011.. i'm looking forward to test my new created system with real hard CASH, i tested the new system 30 October 2010 & as 31 December 2010 the new system stands pround at profit 778 from 28 trades in only 2 months.. but its not fully tested yet as i need few more month to say that this new system will fight neck to neck with my current, proven & stress free ROJAK system. This new system much more faster and the main agenda is for "kopi" money & my ROJAK system still maintain its true CORE as my trend following (longer term) system.. "BIG MONEY MADE ON THE SITTING NOT THE THINKING" , J.Livermore..

* Happy New Year to all, to new trader learn learn learn, for experience trader i believe i already set a benchmark to all of you.. hopefully we all will win big looking forward 2011 and beyond :)) and to those traders that already WHACK by the market in 2010 and planning to make a come back in 2011 i wish goodluck.

*Good bye 2010 & here i come 2011.. hahahaha

Chart update: CPO & FKLI

FKLI


CPO

*This is trend following, no thinking involve, no second guess just stay true to market movement.. Enjoy :))

Merry Christmas..

*I wish Merry Christmas to all my blog readers, followers, friends etc etc.. Have a blast guys/gals and may your wish come true..

CPO Update: 22.12.2010

*CPO, turn LONG 3606 for March contract..

*FKLI still holding LONG 1483..

What Is A Trading System And How Do I Get One Working For Me?

By Michael Levin

1. A Trading system is a defined set of rules that trigger entries and exits in a particular market or group of markets.
   
   
2. Most systems use algorithms, setups or "situations" that occur in the market that trigger an entry (long or short).
   
   
3. An example of a simple system called an "Opening range Breakout" would be to wait until a stock or index has opened for the day and after the first 30 minutes of trading, if the market being tracked breaks above or breaks down below that 30 minute range, the "system' would enter a buy order if breaking above or a sell/short order if breaking below.

Here is an example - S&P 500 ETF Friday December 17th

1. Opening range established between 9:30 am EST
2. Low 123.91 - High 124.11
3. A break of the high will trigger a buy and a break of the low will trigger a low.
   
   
   
   If you cannot view the above chart, go here.
   
   
4. Notice the breakout "A" was just by a few ticks or so. Some systems will buy a breakout by even the smallest of increments, other systems have rules that further trigger, such as volume, Stochastics, MACD, Relative strength, CCI, etc.
   
   
   
   If you cannot view the above chart, go here.
   
   
5. Notice that there was no follow through on this breakout and it went and broke through the lows by just a bit soon after in area "B"
6. If a system isn't robust enough it will be buying breakouts that aren't strong and then get washed out on the subsequent pullbacks that break to new lows.
7. Notice that on this day, that "washout" of area "B" had a nice recovery and moved up again to a brief new high at area "C", traded sideways and then had a "real" breakout in area "D"
   
   
   
   If you cannot view the above chart, go here.
   
   
8. I drew a trendline under the range of the breakout in area "D" that proved to be the "tipping point" at which the bulk of the move was over that area "E" shows as the breakdown of the days move and also gives a chance for late day reversal signals to take place as another type of stand alone system.

The point I want to make here is that there are so many types of trading days that can occur. In an article I wrote for www.FutureSource.com in early December 2010 ( go here to read the article) I talk about how easy it is at the END of the day, to look back and see what one could have done, than it is to be trading well AS the market is open and trading.

By using a system that is programmed to take advantage of "certain" moves in the market, WITHOUT the human emotions that usually have a bias associated with it that often are triggered by greed or fear (should I buy before I miss this move or should I not sell because I don't want to get stopped out) a system is more reliable over time and has the added advantage of waiting until all the signals (metaphorically) are green (for a buy) or red (for a sell).

Systems that trade for a client directly into their own account are highly valued by those that havemoney and know how to make it work for them . Those who have never had a system working for them; seem suspect these days, as I speak to literally hundreds of investors per month and because of the Bernie Madoffs of the world and other "scammers" that exist on the internet, they can be reluctant to try one.

One particular person wanted to "watch" the system over time and see if he liked it. He saw a track record of 4 years with returns averaging 60% per year Net and yet that wasn't good enough for him, he was too skeptical.

After 4 months of watching the beginning of 2010, the system was up almost 28% (that he missed) and begrudgingly he set up his account, only to see the system draw-down 20% in 45 days after he got in. He jumped out and closed his account swearing that he always loses when he does things like this.

I'm sure you know what happened right after he got out; the next 3 months the system went up 55% without him, giving the best 3 month performance stretch in over 2 years. Had he started when he was presented with the system, he would have been up a Net 67% on his account, instead, because of HIS EMOTIONS (which is why we use systems) HE stepped out of a winning system and wound up with losses of 22% (right at the lows I might add). Summing up systems; Find a system with a verifiable track record that you can live with over the course of a few YEARS. Define the worst draw-downs and fund your account so you don't get scared out when a draw-down occurs, because they WILL happen to everyone. Lastly, let it ride, compound your gains and you may find as I have that trading systems are the way to go for a portion of a smart portfolio. I adjusted these lines from the movie the Terminator to fit with how I view automated systems trading. Here are the original lines from the Terminator: That Terminator is out there. It can't be bargained with, it can't be reasoned with. It doesn't feel pity or remorse or fear and it absolutely will not stop, ever, until you are dead. My version: This system is traded for you; it hasn't been optimized or changed since it was invented. It trades whether you are sleeping or working or driving on the highway and it doesn't stop crunching the numbers until the trading day ends. It has no fear, no greed, it doesn't care what Ben Bernanke or Barrack Obama or China does. It doesn't argue with the boss, it doesn't have a bias of where the market is going and it doesn't take coffee breaks. It just keeps on spitting out results day after day after day and it will not ever stop until you tell it to. Systems are your designated hitter; you can stay in the stands and watch them do the heavy lifting... Just don't sit there and watch these systems winning for others while you are still "thinking about it". Featured Article from FutureSource.com

CPO Update: 16.12.2010

*CPO i turn SHOT 3587 for March contract..

*FKLI still holding same position LONG 1483..

CPO & FKLI Chart Update:

FKLI


CPO

CPO Update: 09.12.2010

*I decided to roll to March 2011 contract for CPO, now this is my new CPO LONG 3569.. very good difference between February contract and March, i manage to get difference of +38pts.. ahhaha

*FKLI still no difference still holding LONG 1483 for December month..

CPO & FKLI Update: 9.12.2010

I just came back from holiday yesterday and this is my update for CPO & FKLI..

*CPO still holding February contract LONG 3266..

*FKLI still same case holding LONG 1483..

Testing New System Update

15)30.11>SHOT 3377-BUY 3483 = -106 (1.12)

16)1.12>LONG 3483-SELL ?? =

*Up +438pts

My Small Account Monthly Update: November 2010

*This my Monthly update..

FKLI Update: Rollover

*FKLI i still maintain Long position.. rolling to DEC month LONG 1483..

*CPO still holding FEB contract LONG 3266..

Testing New System Update

* I call it HE System.. (Head Egg).. hahahaha

1-13) Start 29.10.2010, Up +381.. (sorry i'm lazy to post one by one)

14)25.11>LONG 3214-SELL 3377 = +163 (30.11) total> +544

15)30.11>SHOT 3377-BUY ?? =

*15 trades (9win- 5losses), 1 still open Shot

My new, faster swing system trading (still TESTING mode)

*This is the 14th trade if i not mistaken, i tested the new system few days back and this is the current LONG holding... FEB CPO LONG 3214 (23/11/2010)

*My backtest started from 29/10/2010 and already up about 380+/- pts (i cannot remember the exact winning points, left the record in my office).. maybe i will post the tested NEW system here by tomorrow..

*Base from the date started this new system beat my current ROJAK BEST OF THE BEST SYSTEM by about 100pts+/- (not so sure, cannot remember) but the downside this new system give signal more often 14 against 3.. hahaha

*I'll test till year end to see how it perform against my proven ROJAK SYSTEM

CPO Chart Update Long entry (SAR)

*My new Feb CPO LONG 3266.. SO which way now? Up Up.. hmmm totally no idea

CPO Update: Turn LONG

*CPO i turn FEB contract LONG 3266, its frustrating to let go about 180pts winning (SHOT 3288) and only can win 22pts by turning Long today, what to do that is the downside of trend following :)

*FKLI still same case, still holding November LONG 1505 (roll)..

An Introduction To CANDLESTICKS, PART 4

PART 4

Buy on Greed, Sell on Fear

There are only two forces behind the supply and demand forces that
drive a stock's price higher or lower.

Those forces are the emotional forces of fear and greed. To illustrate
this point we refer to Figure 11.


Figure 11

Suppose you are a trader observing the bullish rally of Stock XYZ at
the beginning of the 3rd bullish green candlestick, and considering an
entry.

You have witnessed the stock rally huge for two days and know that
each trader who entered on the first two days is now a big winner.

Based on the emotion of greed you decide to enter at that beginning of
the 3 day, and mentally count your profits as the price rallies to a new
high.

After the stock closes, you brag to your friends at the golf course
regarding the great trade that you made that day.

You go home from the golf course and celebrate the victory with your
spouse and maybe even discuss how you will use the extra money that
you have earned through the trade.

Now keep in mind that the profit is only on paper and not one penny
has been earned yet.

The next morning you check the price of your position, with
expectations that your bullish stock will rocket to the moon! Now
imagine the emotion that goes through your mind when your position
not only fails to go higher, but also opens below your entry price.

What is the emotion that flows through your body as you not only see
your profits erode before your eyes, but now rob your account of
precious capital?

The emotion that you will experience is undoubtedly fear and will
prompt you to scramble to liquidate your position as soon as possible
to minimize your losses.

Now consider that there were also 2 or 3 thousand additional traders
who entered the same stock at around the same price with the hopes
of the gaining the same
profit.

All of these traders will be tripping over themselves trying to get out of
the stock.

As was illustrated in the previous section, this increase in fear results
in an increase in supply of the stock relative to the increase in
demand, and triggers the sharp decline in the price.

The deeper the red candlestick cuts into the bullish green candlesticks,
the more traders are thrown into losing positions, and thus the further
the price decline.

Perhaps you are beginning to realize the power of emotions in price
movements of a stock.

The technical analyst through candlestick reading is trained to read
this greed and fear emotions in the market and capitalize on them.

Capitalizing on Fear and Greed

From the previous section, we determined that price movements result
from massive emotions of fear and greed regarding trader's position in
the market with a given stock.

Recognizing the footprints of greed and fear is not difficult.
Recognizing the signs that the rally or decline before it happens is the
difficult part of trading. How many times has this situation happened
to you: You enter a trade based on a bullish reversal signal, but then
exit on a slight pull back only too see the stock rally to a new high
after you exit.

Or how often have you held on to a stock that experiences a bearish
pull back in hopes that it will turn around, only to see the stock
plummet to new lows before you finally concede to defeat and exit.

Unfortunately, there is no system that can predict with 100% accuracy
exactly where a greed rally or fear sell off begins. There are;
however, techniques based on candlestick patterns that help us locate
probable areas for these turning points. The rest of this section will
explore the techniques in identifying those probable areas that
properly managed will result in profits for the trader in
the long run.

My CPO FEB contract Chart Update (SHOT 3288)

* SHOT 3288 (16/11/2010) The Chart says everything.. :)

CPO Commentary

News Bites

* Market Talk: Market expected that overall November exports would increase 8%-10% from a month earlier and will remain strong into the first half of December.

Cargo surveyor ITS on last Sat pegged Malaysia’s Nov 1-20 days palm oil export at 1,053,520 metric tons, increased 11.5% from the last correspondent period. The figures are close to early expectation of around 1.06 million tons. Cargo surveyors SGS is scheduled to release its exports estimation on today.

Outlook

* Fundamental: CPO prices are likely to be supportive on expectation of higher exports in November and that Indonesia may increase export levy. Watch for export estimation due today.

* Technical: Despite CPO futures settled marginally 8 points higher last Friday, the daily MACD turned bearish mode, coincided with daily Parabolic SAR indicating a sell signal, likely indication a pause on the medium-term uptrend. Also, a daily Doji candle formed after a significant uptrend last Friday, signifying prices are indecision in direction. Note that, a black daily candle to close below 3326, closing of Nov 19, will confirm the evening star reversal chart pattern and accelerate the selling momentum to test 3114, low of Nov 18.

With daily MACD and Parabolic indicating a sell signal, we would advise on selling on strength with a stop loss at daily Parabolic SAR of 3417. Nevertheless, we believe the long-term uptrend and Elliott primary wave count are still intact and the medium-term correction is coincided with the daily primary wave 4 correction. Any breakout above the said resistance will likely to indicate a continuation of daily primary impulse wave 5.

#Courtesy Inter-Pacific Securities Sdn Bhd, for enquiries please contact 03-21427586 or email :- tanks@interpac.com.my (please mention my site http://www.fkli.co.cc/ when enquiring)

Soybean Oil Daily Chart

* See for yourself, lower high in the making & very bearish candle (what they call it Engulfing Something??) ... But if you ask me whats going to happen to Soybean Oil or Crude Palm Oil, further down or up, seriously i've no idea.

Tun Dr. Mahathir Mohamad Facebook Posting

THE STOCK MARKET

by Dr. Mahathir bin Mohamad on Friday, November 19, 2010 at 9:57am

1. Lately we have been seeing rather rapid increases in the Kuala Lumpur Composite Index. Those who play the stock market must be feeling very happy. Much money must be made by investors from capital gains.

2. Some people believe that the rise of the KLCI is an indicator of the healthy state of the Malaysian economy. This may be true but let me throw some cold water in the belief that the index indicates that the economy is doing very well.

3. It is doing fairly well, no doubt, but that is not enough to push the KLCI to record highs. What is happening is that a lot of foreign money is coming in to buy Malaysian stocks.

4.In itself it is not bad. It is also a kind of foreign direct investment (FDI). But this kind of FDI is not about setting up industries to produce goods for export. The latter will not be easily liquidated to take the invested capital out. The plants which are set up cannot be easily sold. The Investors will have to manage them through good and bad times to get a return on their investments.

5. But FDI in stocks and shares can be sold any time and the proceeds taken out.

6. Just as increases in investments push up share prices and the KLCI, rapid or massive divestments will push down the share prices and index.

7. We read in the papers that the Federal Reserve Bank of the United States is pumping US600 billion Dollars into the US economy. A part of this money will no doubt be used to invest in stock and shares of the developing economies. The result of this FDI-financed purchases will be a rise in the share prices and the KLCI.

8. In 1997-1998 the foreign investors pulled out their investments and the KLCI dropped from 1,300 to 262. Naturally a lot of local investors lost money. They could not meet margin calls nor raise money to augment collaterals for their bank loans.

9. The banks found themselves burdened with large numbers of non-performing loans and had to face the threat of bankruptcy.

10. Should the banks collapse the economy of the country will go into a tailspin. It did in 1997-1998. It will happen again should the foreign investors dump their Malaysian shares to take profits from capital gains.

11. Foreign funds, especially from the US coming in to invest in Malaysia's stock market at this time must be considered as hot money. I would not be suprised when the KLCI peaks the foreign investors will dump their shares and collect capital gains. The share prices will fall rapidly and Malaysians who had chased the shares on their way up will be asked to meet margin calls. If they fail they will lose a lot of money.

12. I hope I am wrong. But sometimes my predictions about money and markets have proven to be right. In any case I only own 200 Malayan Tobacco shares bought before I became Education Minister. I have nothing to gain or to lose, but the country and the stock market investors will lose.

The End of my LONG run for CPO..

* After a LONG run for CPO, today my system SCREAMING to SHOT.. this run generate profit about 552+/- points.. Now officially i'm holding SHOT 3288.. how long i'll hold this SHOT? hmmm wait n see, i have no answer..

CPO & FKLI update for Hari Raya Haji holiday

* CPO- I just roll my Long position to February contract this morning, my signal triggered and now i holding SHOT 3288 for February contract.

* FKLI- Still the same i'm holding my November month LONG 1505 (roll)..

CPO rollover today

* CPO i roll to February contract LONG 3357..

My CPO & FKLI - Daily chart entry

FKLI

CPO

* Enjoy..

CPO Commentary

News Bites

* Market Talk: CPO prices will continue their rally up to the middle of 2011 after hitting their highest level in over two year, Lee Yeow Chor, executive director of Malaysia's IOI Corp said.

A local broking house upwardly revised its projection on CPO prices to MYR2.700 per ton for 2010 and 2011 respectively, compared with early projection of MYR2,500 per tons due to weak Malaysian output and strong exports. Its commented that palm oil supply would remain tight in the first half of 2011 and would support the prices. However, CPO prices was expected to be capped to between MYR3,300 and MYR3,500 per ton.

Outlook

* Fundamental: We expect some selling pressure on spillover weakness from crude oil and soyoil losses in last Friday. Watch out the export estimation due today.

* Technical: Reuters Jefferies CRB Index broke down the daily uptrend channel of 307.16 and settled at 303.16 last Friday, signaling further weakness in general commodities in the near term. Also, CPO prices broke down the shortterm hourly uptrend channel with bearish hourly Parabolic SAR, increasing the shortterm selling momentum in the near term.

However, there are no major changes in the bullish daily indicators and hence we believe any correction in the near term is healthy for further price advancement in the long term basis. This is also coincide with the start of daily Elliott primary and minor corrective wave 4 with a rising short-term target of 3216, target of minor corrective wave 4, then 2809, target of primary corrective wave 4. Intraday traders are advised on selling accumulation around 3400 psychology resistant, unless any signs of bottoming and may mean another start of Elliott daily minor or primary impulse wave 5.

#Courtesy Inter-Pacific Securities Sdn Bhd, for enquiries please contact 03-21427586 or email :- tanks@interpac.com.my (please mention my site http://www.fkli.co.cc/ when enquiring)

CPO Commentary

News Bites

* Market Talk: Market expected CPO prices could remain above MYR3,000 per ton for the rest of 2010 till first quarter of 2011 amid shrinking supply and as demand remains strong from China. Meanwhile, concerns of possible lower palm oil production continues as uncertain weather patterns triggered flood in palm oil growing region in Kedah and Perlis.

Outlook

* Fundamental: At the time this report is written, Palm Olein futures traded in Dalian Commodity Exchange is down by 4.07% and soyoil futures in CBOT down by 2.7%. We expect prices to tightly trace these two bourses ahead of weekend positioning.

* Technical: Overall technical remains friendly, though a note of caution emerged from the candlestick reading, whereby a daily long upper shadow occurred yesterday, typically a bearish signal particularly when it occurs near a high price level at or when the product is overbought, which in our case, the daily RSI is overbought at 84.247.

For trading purposes, we would advice trading on the hourly uptrend channel, which should begin the day with a resistance 3474 and support at 3372. The support line of the above mentioned channel coincides with weekly Fibonacci projection support of 3366. A breach of these support levels could potentially bring prices down to 3265, the observed low at Nov 8, and subsequently 3210, the rising gap.

#Courtesy Inter-Pacific Securities Sdn Bhd, for enquiries please contact 03-21427586 or email :- tanks@interpac.com.my (please mention my site http://www.fkli.co.cc/ when enquiring)

Are You A Bull Or A Bear?

Casual acquaintances who come to learn know I trade for a living (something I rarely volunteer without being asked) will always ask whether I’m a bullish or bearish on the market or economy. My reply often irritates them when I say “I’m neither one – I’m just an opportunist.”

What I mean by that is that I go out of my way to avoid placing myself into a neat and tidy category that can influence my analysis of the markets and the stocks I trade. Although I’m far from perfect and sometimes let my opinions cloud my judgment (I am human after all), I do really try to do everything I can to look for opportunities on both sides of the market.

Many investors and also traders try to fit themselves into one neat category based on their opinions or of others who’ve they have come to respect. Even worse, those views are frequently tainted by how their portfolio is currently positioned (people want to be right after all) which can be both dangerous and quite unprofitable.

Believe it or not, some of the most profitable trades I’ve taken have been ones that run contrary to my personal views.

Case in point, I know several traders who are struggling now because they are very bearish about the market. While in principle I agree many of their views, I cannot let those views cloud both my analysis and trading. While I’m fairly certain there will be a time when their views will be proven correct, in this business timing is everything. Opinions after all, don’t pay the bills – only profitable trades do!

As you’ll soon learn if you haven’t already, there is no difference between being “early” and “wrong” in this market. Likewise, it pays to remember there were lots of hedge funds that went broke prior to March of 2000 because they shorted all of the Internet and tech stocks. These guys were proven to be right on the money much later on, but in reality they never were able to take full advantage of it because they lost so much money before the bear returned.

Remember this – in trading it isn’t about who is right or wrong. Instead it is all about who can make money and take advantage of the most opportunities in the present. Opinions are terrific things, but in most cases, you would be wise to set them aside and trade the market you see rather than the market you think you should or want to see.

* This report was originally published by The Kirk Report on April 6, 2004.

My Small Account Statement..

* As requested today i post my statement as per yesterday closing 10 November 2010, after this i'll only post by monthly basis IF only needed yaa..

The Number One Rule of Trading

By Craig Turner

If there is one thing I've learned in all my years in the financial markets, it is never add to a losing position. That means never "average down" a losing long position or "average up" a losing short position. This is even more important when using leverage. There is a very well-know saying, "your first loss is your best loss". What this means is you are best served taking a small loss before it becomes a larger loss, or even worse, a loss that eats up a majority of your trading capital. In order to avoid this major trading mistake, we must first understand why traders add to losers, why traders should not do this, and what they can do to stop it from happening.

Why Traders Add To Losing Positions

Traders stay in losing positions for only two reasons. Either they don't want to be wrong about the market or they don't want to lose money on the trade. Sometimes it is a combination of both. Regardless of which one it is, it causes traders to stay in positions that are going against them.

As traders are losing money, they figure that if they add to the losing position, they can bring the average cost of the position down. For example, let's say a trader wants to be short Crude Oil and he sells 1 contact of Crude Oil at $75.00. Crude is now trading at $80, and the trader is down $5 in crude ($5000). The trader then decides to sell short an additional 2nd crude oil contact at $80. The average short position is $77.50 (the average of $80 and $75).

The trader now only needs Crude Oil to go $2.50 in his favor to get to breakeven at $77.50, instead of $75.00. However, every tick Crude Oil goes against the trader past $80.00 a barrel is going to count twice a much, eating up available capital a double the rate. To make matters worse, markets that are trending in one direction, tend to continue to trend in that direction.

Why Traders Should Not Add To a Losing Position

When a trader is in a losing position, the market is telling him he is wrong. The market is the total sum of psychological, technical and fundamental knowledge. The market is the total sum of all investor knowledge and market opinions. It includes institutional money, sovereign wealth funds, hedge fund managers, trend following funds, commercial hedging interest, and every other participant, large and small.

If a trader continues to hold onto a losing position after the market says he is wrong, the trader is basically saying he is right, and the collective sum or the rest of the market is wrong. In other words, the global consensus is telling the trader the world is round while the trader insists the world is flat. This will almost always lead to larger losses. Bullish markets tend to trade higher, and bearish markets tend to trade lower. It takes something significantly fundamental or technical to occur in that market to change the trend.

Not only is the trader wrong shorting Crude at $75, he is twice as wrong shorting the market again at $80. The losses are now piling up exponentially if he continues to add on to a losing position. Plus, he has now doubled his leverage on a bad trade. Meanwhile, if the trader had just had a $1 or $2 stop on the crude oil position, he would have taken his loss and been done with the trade. He would have been able to admit he was wrong and move onto the next opportunity, instead of creating larger losses and letting other opportunities go by while he was in a losing trade.

Wait Just A Second, I Have "Averaged Down" and Made Money!

If you have averaged down losing positions before, chances are it may have worked in your favor. The problem is, the one time it does not work in your favor you will blow out your account. Every time you "average down" and succeed you are cheating trading death. It is almost like a game of Russian roulette. It only ends once, and when it does, it's over.

"Markets Can Remain Irrational Longer Than You Can Remain Solvent" - John Maynard Keynes

When it comes to leveraged trading, there have never been truer words said. Traders who want to hold onto losing positions "until they come back" to the price they entered may never see it happen. A trader who has a $10K acct short 1 crude at $75.00, only has $10 of room before the account is drawn down to zero. Most people think they will never let a position go against them that far, but it does happen, and there is no assurance that the market will come back to $75 before it gets to $85, causing the trader to liquidate the position for a very large loss.

THE SOLUTION

The simple solution is to never add to a losing position. However, as an experienced broker, analyst, trading newsletter publisher and individual trader, I know that is easier said then done. Here are a few rules to live by in order to help you stop adding to losing positions.

Place Stops Just Outside Normal Trading Ranges

When entering a position, traders need to give their positions enough room to work in their favor, but they also must have stops if the market moves decidedly against them. For a swing or position trader, this means having stops just outside the most recent trading ranges. It could be the previous day's low/high, the past week, or right outside the natural support and resistance lines for the markets. Traders need to define this risk parameter BEFORE they enter the trade. Traders need to know what the risk is and make sure they are comfortable with the risk if they are wrong about the direction of the market.

Mental Clarity Can Only Be Achieved After the Losing Position Is Exited

When a trader is in a losing position and the market keeps on going against them, it is very difficult to approach the situation with a level head and clear mind. The fear of losing money can be the greatest factor in the psychology of trading. It causes traders to see things irrationally, as they do everything possible not to take a loss. This leads to poor decision-making and bad judgment. This is why it is so important to define the stop loss parameters before you enter the market and stick with it.

Unfortunately, sometimes traders get into a trade without a stop or let the position run too far against them. If possible, try to imagine you are flat instead of in the position. Then ask yourself, if you were flat, would you get back into the position? If not, you need to get out, and get out fast. If the trader can't honestly say what he would do, or can't detach from the situation, the best thing to do is exit. Getting out of a loser relieves stress and allows the trader to approach things with a level head. Once the trader is out of the position, he can always get back in if he feels it is the right move. Some traders don't like this method because they don't want to spend the extra commission for getting out and getting back in. However, the clarity that is gained from exiting a losing position is invaluable compared to the extra transaction costs. Don't worry about a few dollars when thousands are at stake.

You Must Be Able to Admit When You Are Wrong and Take a Loss

Being able to admit you are wrong and take a loss is the first step in the journey of successful trading. No one is perfect in trading. Taking a small loss is a minor victory in trading. Being able to let winning trades run and exiting losers for a small loss is what it is all about. However, you can't get to the winners if you take large losses.

It is OK to be wrong. Actually, it is great to be wrong. Why? Because if you can't be wrong, you'll never be right about the markets. Trading is about taking risk and managing risk. The trader who can exit a position going against him early is giving himself the change to win big on the next opportunity.

The Best Traders Add to Winning Positions & Use Stops to Protect Profits

The most successful traders I've seen not only cut their losers quickly, but they let their winners run and add on as they go in their favor. They never average down losers, but they will certainly average up on winners. While some might not want to trade multiple lots, I think the concept is very important. When you have a winning position, the market is telling you that you are correct. The collective sum of all knowledge in the market place is in total agreement with you. This is the perfect time to add on another lot if you have the available capital without over-leveraging your account.

Some traders don't want to add on at higher prices because it adversely affects their dollar cost average. However, what traders need to realize is that markets trading higher tend to trend higher, and the opposite is true for bear markets. If you find yourself in a great winning trade, and you see no reason why it should stop, that is a great time to add on. When it comes to trading, you want to buy high and sell higher, or sell low and buy lower. We are not in the business of picking bottoms and tops. It is a one-way ticket to trading failure.

Successful traders also use stops. As the market moves in their favor, they move their stop up to where they feel is below a reasonable support level. They are comfortable with the losses or profits they will take if they get stopped out. They let the market tell them if they are right or wrong and they accept the market's decision!

Find a Broker Who Can Help You When You Need It Most

If you are having difficulty with adding to losing positions, you need to talk to your broker about it. Regardless if you are a self-directed online trader or broker-assisted, you need to have a talk with your broker. If you don't have access to a broker with your current trading arrangement, consider finding a firm that will allow you to access to one regardless of whether you are a self-directed online trader or broker-assisted trader.

As a Senior Broker at Daniels Trading, I can honestly tell you from first hand experience how important it is to be able to work through these situations with someone who has an interest in the success of your trading. Sometimes we are able to offer valuable advice about not adding to losing positions. Sometimes it just helps for the trader to talk about the trade the same way a person tells their psychologist their problems. In the end, it is the trader who works out what needs to be done just by communicating the situation aloud to another human being. Either way, having a trained professional in the weeds next to you during battle can make a huge difference in your most difficult trading periods, and help you make sure you never return to that place again.

#Article from FutureSource.com

CPO Commentary

News Bites

* Market Talk: Cargo surveyors ITS and SGS are scheduled to release their Malaysian palm oil export estimations for first 10 days of November today. Investors revised forecast for exports to 393,000 tons from 410,000 tons. ITS pegged the figure for November 1-10 period at 395,015 tons and SGS pegged the figures at 392,828 tons.

Outlook

* Fundamental: We expect CPO prices are likely to continue its upward momentum as fueled by other agricultural commodities. Watch forMPOB data due today.

* Technical: CPO futures broke out the observed high of 3348 yesterday, confirmed a continuation of the current daily Elliott primary impulse wave 3 which coincided with weekly cycle impulse wave 3 with an upside target of 3385 this week.

The RSI readings for hourly, daily and weekly timeframes are again overbought at their 80s. Any further upward momentum toward 3385-3400 vicinity will likely to trigger critical overbought condition for short-term timeframes and lead to a technical correction. Traders are advised to trade cautiously along the hourly uptrend channel of 3179 and 3382.

#Courtesy Inter-Pacific Securities Sdn Bhd, for enquiries please contact 03-21427586 or email :- tanks@interpac.com.my (please mention my site http://www.fkli.co.cc/ when enquiring)

My Small Account... Not Big Account ya Fred.. heheh

* I post this for inspiration to all traders that follow my trades and also for others as motivation, this from my small account trades..

>> 1st May 2010 monthly statement after badly injured by the market..



>> 31st October 2010 monthly statement



>> As yesterday 8th November 2010..



* I can only say believe in your system...

CPO Commentary

News Bites

* Market Talk: Market expected palm oil inventories in October to reach a nine month high of 1.85 million to 1.9 million tons on higher output and weak exports. Meanwhile production was expected to have increased 8%-15% at 1.7 million – 1.8 million tons and imports from Indonesia might reach 100,000 tons.

Outlook

* Fundamental: We expect technical to take precedence today as market awaits the MPOB data scheduled to be released tomorrow.

* Technical: CPO futures again touched a new 28-month high of 3308 in tandem with bullish daily indicators and settled at 3273 yesterday. We however believe the price target for daily Elliott primary impulse wave 3 had accomplished, prices should penetrate lower for a start of primary corrective wave 4 in the near term. This is also mirror the daily minor corrective wave 4 with first downside target of 3137, then 2789, downside target for primary corrective wave 4.

The daily and weekly RSI readings are currently overbought at their 80s, indicating prices may anticipate a short-term correction in the near-term. We would suggest scale up selling with a stop loss at observed high of 3308. Note that, any breakout above 3308 will indicate a continuation of the daily primary and minor impulse wave 3 and prices may jump higher to test the next psychology resistant at 3400.

#Courtesy Inter-Pacific Securities Sdn Bhd, for enquiries please contact 03-21427586 or email :- tanks@interpac.com.my (please mention my site http://www.fkli.co.cc/ when enquiring)