my RULES

1. "MUST" take every signal shown by system
2. "NEVER" invest > 30% out from capital, balance capital for backup
3. "INCREASE" position only after 20-30% increase in capital

*Futures Crude Palm Oil: current position for GT2
Step 1: Holding> February contract LONG 3053 (01.12.11)
Step 2: Stop> i dont use STOP!!
Step 3: Entry> No SAR signal yet..

*Futures Kuala Lumpur Index: current position for RJ1
Step 1: Holding> LONG 1436 November (24.11.11)
Step 2: Stop> i dont use STOP!!
Step 3: Entry> No SAR signal yet..

*will be updated after market

*PLEASE SCROLL DOWN DOWN DOWN TO VIEW MY GT2 SYSTEM PERFORMANCE

Wise Words from Ed Seykota

If I am bullish, I neither buy on a reaction, nor wait for strength; I am already in. I turn bullish at the instant my buy stop is hit, and stay bullish until my sell stop is hit. Being bullish and not being long is illogical. ~ "Market Wizards, Interview with Top Traders - Jack D. Schwager"

Wednesday, February 25, 2009

In the long run ... Commentary: This might be first genuine bear market in three decades

ANNANDALE, Va. (MarketWatch) -- Lots of attention was paid, going into Monday's trading session, to the Standard & Poor's 500 Index.

Would it join the Dow Jones Industrial Average in breaking to new bear-market lows, lower than the Nov. 20 level that up until recently had marked the low point of the bear market that began in October 2007?

As fate would have it, of course, it was not even close. By the close of trading, the S&P 500 was more than nine points below its Nov. 20 closing low.

That's depressing enough news, of course.
          Chart of $INDU
But by focusing on whether the Nov. 20 lows would be broken, investors may have overlooked something else that happened Monday that is even more momentous from a longer-term point of view: The Dow broke below its closing low of the 2000-02 bear market; the S&P 500 had achieved that dubious feat last Friday.

Technicians will no doubt endlessly debate the meaning of this in coming days. But one intriguing consequence of the 2002 lows' being broken is that the stock market's decline between 2000 and 2002 begins to appear less and less as a bear market and more as a mere correction within a great bull market that began in the early 1980s.

According to this retelling, that bull market lasted 25 years and did not finally end until October 2007.

What difference does it make how we retell the story of what has passed? In one sense, of course, it makes no difference. After all, regardless of what you call it, the stock market fell some 40% between 2000 and 2002.

But, in another sense, this retelling of history carries great significance, since it reveals a lot about the bear market we're suffering through right now. According to some technical analysts, prominently including Richard Russell, editor of Dow Theory Letters, a major bear market can be expected to obliterate between one-half and two-thirds of the previous advance.

I'll do the math for you: We've already erased around half of the bull market that began in 1982. A two-thirds retrenchment would take the Dow down to around the 5,200 mark.

By the way, this sobering retelling of the stock market's history over the last three decades isn't something that technicians are cooking up only now, after the stock market has already declined by 50%.

Russell outlined just such a possibility nearly a year ago, in April 2008, when the Dow was trading at relatively lofty levels around 12,600. In entertaining the notion that the 2000-02 bear market was actually a mere correction within an ongoing bull market, Russell wrote: "Somewhere ahead we're finally going to enter a true primary bear market, maybe one of the greatest and most tragic in history. That future bear market will end with something we haven't seen since the 1980 to 1982 period, and I'm talking about great values in stocks. And when I say great values I'm talking about blue-chip stocks selling in single-digit price/earning ratios while at the same time providing dividend yields of 6-7-8%, the kind of yields we last saw at the lows of the early 1980s."

The bottom line? On this retelling, we should have expected the bear market that follows an unprecedented bull market would be just as momentous.

In other words, we should not have been surprised.
End of Story
Mark Hulbert is the founder of Hulbert Financial Digest in Annandale, Va. He has been tracking the advice of more than 160 financial newsletters since 1980.
*Courtesy of MarketWatch

An historical walk down Wall Street, Commentary: Analogy with the 1930s doesn't have to spell doom

ANNANDALE, Va. (MarketWatch) -- It's become fashionable in recent months to look to the 1930s for an analogy to what we're suffering through today.

But how many of the commentators who so blithely throw the comparison around have actually analyzed what it would really mean to play out that decade's script?

I think you know the answer.

So, for this column, I decided to take that analogy seriously. And, not surprisingly, I found that it presents a very depressing portrait of what might lie ahead. If we think we've had it bad so far -- and we have -- we haven't seen anything yet.

Believe it or not, however, I also found some good news.

That, at least, is the conclusion to emerge from a recent interview with Jeremy Siegel, the Wharton finance professor and author of the classic investment book, "Stocks for the Long Run."

To locate the date during the 1930s that is most analogous to today, Siegel looked for the point at which the stock market after 1929 had -- as is the case today -- declined by half. He relied on a stock-market benchmark that he has calculated which takes dividends into account and also adjusts for inflation.

This point of 50% decline came very early in the Great Depression, according to Siegel -- at the end of 1930, in fact. As in the current bear market, that initial point of 50% decline came just 16 months after the August 1929 stock-market top.

But the bear market had only barely begun at that point. Over just the next five months, according to Siegel, on an inflation-adjusted total return basis, the stock market fell an additional 60%.

You read that right: That's a 60% drop on top of a 50% drop -- or should I say "on bottom of ..."?

If the stock market today were to suffer a further decline of similar magnitude, the Dow Jones Industrial Average would be trading below the 3,000 level by the end of July.

To this extent, therefore, we had better hope that the analogy with the 1930s doesn't hold.

The news isn't all bad, however. That's because, according to Siegel, the stock market quickly recovered from its 60% plunge in early 1931 -- within two years, in fact. By June 1933, the market was actually ahead of where it had stood at the end of 1930.

Furthermore, over the five years beginning at the end of 1930, the stock market, on an inflation-adjusted total-return basis, produced a 7% annualized return -- notwithstanding the 60% drop in the first five months of that five-year period.

In other words, even if you had been so unlucky as to buy stocks right before a six-month decline of 60%, you would have been whole again within just two years and would have earned a 7% real return over the next five years.

Few investors would object to that outcome today, of course. A 7% real return over the next five years sounds awfully attractive, in fact. And, yet, assuming the analogy with the 1930s holds up, that is what will happen between now and February 2014.

Of course, there's no way of knowing whether we're really playing out a 1930s script. And even if we are so unlucky as to endure a 60% drop over the next five months, there are no guarantees that the market will recover as quickly as it did following the first half of 1931.

Nevertheless, insofar as we choose to compare the current bear market and the Great Depression, we owe it to ourselves to carefully analyze what that analogy holds. And, as awful as that analogy is, it also contains some welcome and surprising silver linings.
End of Story
Mark Hulbert is the founder of Hulbert Financial Digest in Annandale, Va. He has been tracking the advice of more than 160 financial newsletters since 1980.
*Courtesy of MarketWatch

DowJones 60m.chart (24.02.2009)


*DJ rebound - its about time because of the BULLDIV from RSI & Chart and Bernanke mention all this will end by year end (he can see the future, good good) hahaha, but Bursa move ahead of the rest of the world yesterday. Now trick question, DJ follow Bursa ka?? hehe

AIG - Chart & Put


*congrats to all my friends that making good USD... very good PUT decision to all you guys make last October/November. Regret i tada follow you guys....

PUT OPTIONS Expire at close Fri, May 15, 2009

Strike
LastChgBidAskVolOpen Int
3.00
2.50 0.002.542.682232,980
4.00
3.50 0.003.503.70101,234
5.00
4.50 0.004.504.70101,380
6.00
4.40 0.005.505.705174
7.00
5.40 0.006.506.70101
8.00
6.56 0.007.507.701270
10.00
8.60 0.009.509.703647
15.00
13.55 0.0014.5014.70512

Stocks jump after Bernanke says recession may end

Stocks jump after Bernanke tells Congress recession might end this year


NEW YORK (AP) -- Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke has given Wall Street a double dose of reassurance. Bernanke has told Congress the recession might end this year, and that regulators aren't planning to nationalize banks. The news alleviated some of investors' worries about the economy and the banking system, and lifted the Dow Jones industrial average and Standard & Poor's 500 index off their lowest levels since 1997.

Analysts said the market was also hoping that President Barack Obama, who speaks to the nation Tuesday night, will offer details about his plans to help stabilize the financial system.

The Dow is up 236 points at 7,350, while the S&P 500 index is up 29 at 773. The Nasdaq composite index is up 54 at 1,441.

Advancing issues are ahead of losers by 5 to 1 on the New York Stock Exchange. Volume came to 1.84 billion shares.

*Courtesy of Yahoo! Finance

>> Now we wait and see whether Bernanke prediction going to happen by year end or not. Hehehehe, now looks like prediction between Greenspan vs Bernanke ???

CPO 2011 (GT2 System Performance)

MAY 2011 contract
1)17.02>LONG 3729-SELL 3623 = -106 (21.02)

2)21.02>SHOT 3623-BUY 3538 = +85 (23.02)

3)23.02>LONG 3538-SELL 3518 = -20 (28.02)

4)24.02>SHOT 3506-BUY 3413 x 2lots = +186 (24.02)

5)28.02>SHOT 3518-BUY 3525 = -7 (01.03)

6)01.03>LONG 3525-SELL 3625 = +100 (08.03)

7)08.03>SHOT 3625-BUY 3598 = +27 (09.03)

8)09.03>LONG 3598-SELL 3406 = -192 (11.03)

9)10.03>SHOT 3501-BUY 3473 x 2lots = +56 (10.03)

10)11.03>SHOT 3406-BUY 3347 = +59 (14.03)

11)14.03>LONG 3347-SELL 3371 = +24 (15.03)

JUNE 2011 contract
12)15.03>LONG 3360-SELL 3434 = +74 (21.03)

13)21.03>SHOT 3434-BUY 3347 = +87 (23.03)

14)23.03>LONG 3347-SELL 3425 = +78 (11.04)

15)24.03>SHOT 3287-BUY 3249 x 2lots = +76 (24.03)

16)31.03>SHOT 3302-BUY 3343 x 2lots= -82 (31.03)

17)05.04>SHOT 3368.5-BUY 3365 x 2lots= +7 (05.04)

18)07.04>SHOT 3339-BUY 3342 x 2lots= -6 (07.04)

19)11.04>SHOT 3425-BUY 3344 = +81 (13.04)

20)13.04>LONG 3344-SELL 3307 = -37 (14.04)

21)14.04>SHOT 3307-BUY 3269 = +38 (18.04)

JULY 2011 contract
22)18.04>LONG 3253-SELL 3355 = +102 (25.04)

23)19.04>SHOT 3220-BUY 3240 x 2lots = -40 (19.04)

24)25.04>SHOT 3355-BUY 3334 = +21 (26.04)

25)26.04>LONG 3334-SELL 3290 = -44 (27.04)

26)27.04>SHOT 3290-BUY 3320 = -30 (28.04)

27)28.04>LONG 3320-SELL 3243 = -77 (04.05)

28)04.05>SHOT 3243-BUY 3277 = -34 (05.05)

29)05.05>LONG 3277-SELL 3175 = -102 (06.05)

30)06.05>SHOT 3175-BUY 3203 = -28 (09.05)

31)09.05>LONG 3203-SELL 3264 =+61 (10.05)

32)10.05>SHOT 3264-BUY 3252 = +12 (13.05)

33)13.05>LONG 3252-SELL 3370 = +118 (19.05)

AUGUST 2011 contract
34)19.05>LONG 3339-SELL 3388 = +49 (23.05)

35)23.05>SHOT 3388-BUY 3385 = +3 (24.05)

36)24.05>LONG 3385-SELL 3370 = -15 (25.05)

37)25.05>SHOT 3370-BUY 3386 = -16 (25.05)

38)25.05>LONG 3386-SELL 3418 = +32 (26.05)

39)26.05>SHOT 3418-BUY 3439 = -21 (26.05)

40)26.05>LONG 3439-SELL 3405 = -34 (26.05)

41)26.05>SHOT 3405-BUY 3442 = -37 (27.05)

42)27.05>LONG 3442-SELL 3440 = -2 (30.05)

43)30.05>SHOT 3440-BUY 3373 = +67 (02.06)

44)02.06>LONG 3373-SELL 3441 = +68 (03.06)

45)03.06>SHOT 3441-BUY 3254 = +187 (13.06)

46)13.06>LONG 3254-SELL 3256 = +2 (16.06)

SEPTEMBER 2011 contract
47)16.06>SHOT 3254-BUY 3215 = +39 (20.06)

48)20.06>LONG 3215-SELL 3212 = -3 (22.06)

49)22.06>SHOT 3212-BUY 3178 = +34 (23.06)

50)23.06>LONG 3178-SELL 3144 = -34 (24.06)

51)24.06>SHOT 3144-BUY 3121 = +23 (24.06)

52)24.06>LONG 3121-SELL 3076 = -45 (27.06)

53)27.06>SHOT 3076-BUY 3080 = -4 (28.06)

54)28.06>LONG 3080-SELL 3113 = +33 (30.06)

55)30.06>SHOT 3113-BUY 3071 = +42 (04.07)

56)04.07>LONG 3071-SELL 3054 = -17 (04.07)

57)04.07>SHOT 3054-BUY 3046 = +8 (06.07)

58)06.07>LONG 3046-SELL 3074 = +28 (08.07)

59)08.07>SHOT 3074-BUY 3045 = +29 (12.07)

60)12.07>LONG 3045-SELL 3115 = +70 (15.07)

61)15.07>SHOT 3115-BUY 3134 = -19 (18.07)

OCTOBER 2011 contract
62)18.07>SHOT 3125-BUY 3082 = +43 (19.07)

63)19.07>LONG 3082-SELL 3140 = +58 (21.07)

64)21.07>SHOT 3140-BUY 3100 = +40 (25.07)

65)25.07>LONG 3100-SELL 3115 = +15 (28.07)

66)28.07>SHOT 3115-BUY 3123 = -8 (28.07)

67)28.07>LONG 3123-SELL 3086 = -37 (29.07)

68)29.07>SHOT 3086-BUY 3100 = -14 (29.07)

69)29.07>LONG 3100-SELL 3120 = +20 (02.08)

70)02.08>SHOT 3120-BUY 3137 = -17 (03.08)

71)03.08>LONG 3137-SELL 3116 = -21 (04.08)

72)04.08>SHOT 3116-BUY 3050 = +66 (05.08)

73)05.08>LONG 3050-SELL 3033 = -17 (08.08)

74)08.08>SHOT 3033-BUY 2959 = +74 (09.08)

75)09.08>LONG 2959-SELL 3004 = +45 (12.08)

76)12.08>SHOT 3004-BUY 3054 = -50 (15.08)

77)15.08>LONG 3054-SELL 3057 * = +3 (15.08) *sell because chart hang from 3pm.

NOVEMBER 2011 contract
78)16.08>SHOT 3019-BUY 3025 = -6 (17.08)

79)17.08>LONG 3025-SELL 3003 = -22 (19.08)

80)19.08>SHOT 3000-BUY 3045 = -45 (23.08)

81)23.08>LONG 3045-SELL 3051 = +6 (24.08)

82)24.08>SHOT 3051-BUY 2978 = +73 (26.08)

83)26.08>LONG 2978-SELL 3037 = +59 (05.09) #NO TRADE because raya holiday!!

84)05.09>SHOT 3037-LONG 3007 = +30 (06.09) #NO TRADE because of Bursa feed problem!!

85)06.09>LONG 3007-SELL 3032 = +25 (08.09)

86)08.09>SHOT 3032-BUY 3055 = -23 (09.09)

87)09.09>LONG 3055-SELL 3021 = -34 (13.09) *

88)13.09>SHOT 3021-LONG 3023 = -2 (14.09)

89)14.09>LONG 3023-SELL 2993 = -30 (14.09)

90)14.09>SELL 2993-BUY 3009 = -16 (14.09)

91)14.09>LONG 3009-SELL 3038 = +29 (19.09)

DECEMBER 2011 contract
92)19.09>LONG 3038-SELL 3028 = -10 (22.09)

93)22.09>SHOT 3028-BUY 2915 = +113 (26.09)

94)26.09>LONG 2915-SELL 2886 = -29 (28.09)

95)28.09>SHOT 2886-BUY 2898 = -12 (29.09)

96)29.09>LONG 2898-SELL 2826 = -72 (04.10)

97)04.10>SHOT 2826-BUY 2775 = +51 (06.10)

98)06.10>LONG 2775-SELL 2783 = +8 (07.10)

99)07.10>SHOT 2783-BUY 2866 = -83 (12.10)

100)12.10>LONG 2866-SELL 2838 = -28 (13.10)

101)13.10>SHOT 2838-BUY 2876 = -38 (14.10)

102)14.10>LONG 2876-SELL 2824 = -52 (18.10)

JANUARY 2012 contract
103)18.10>SHOT 2832-BUY 2874 = -42 (19.10)

104)19.10>LONG 2874-SELL 2986 = +112 (27.10)

105)27.10>SHOT 2986-BUY 2947 = +39 (02.11)

106)02.11>LONG 2947-SELL 2937 = -10 (03.11)

107)03.11>SHOT 2937-BUY 2970 = -33 (03.11)

108)03.11>LONG 2970-SELL 2993 = +23 (04.11)

109)04.11>SHOT 2993-BUY 3018 = -25 (04.11)

110)04.11>LONG 3018-SELL 3030 = +12 (09.11)

111)09.11>SHOT 3030-BUY 3085 = -55 (10.11) ##

112)10.11>LONG 3085-SHOT 3163 = +78 (14.11)

113)14.11>SHOT 3163-LONG 3199 = -36 (15.11)

114)15.11>LONG 3199-SELL 3188 = -11 (15.11)

FEBRUARY 2012 contract
115)15.11>SHOT 3188-BUY 3230 = -42 (16.11)

116)16.11>LONG 3229-SELL 3239 = +10 (17.11)

117)17.11>SHOT 3239-BUY 3261 = -22 (18.11)

118)18.11>LONG 3261-SELL 3216 = -45 (21.11)

119)21.11>SHOT 3216-BUY 3182 = +34 (22.11)

120)22.11>LONG 3182-SELL 3147 = -35 (23.11)

121)23.11>SHOT 3147-BUY 3130 = +17 (24.11)

122)24.11>LONG 3130-SELL 3080 = -50 (25.11)

123)25.11>SHOT 3080-BUY 3053 = +27 (01.12)

124)01.12>LONG 3053-SELL ?? =


TOTAL POINTS = From 1st Jan 2011>> +1273 points